Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)

Referee: Garcia Mendoza K. I. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Claro Sports, VIX, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Venezuela	Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Necaxa		Tigres UANL

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	1.91	Watch
	3.55	3.45	1.98	Watch
	3.88	3.6	2.02
	3.72	3.59	1.98	Watch
	3.4	3.2	1.91
	4.19	3.47	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (3.38)	3.45 ↑ (3.25)	1.96 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
24.9%

Draw
27.2%

Tigres UANL
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

28.2%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

28.1%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Necaxa - Tigres UANL Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tigres UANL will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Unsain E. (G) 33. Martinez R. 4. Pena A. (C) 20. Mendez F. 16. Calderon C. 30. Monreal R. 5. Gutierrez K. 6. Leyva D. 35. Ruiz J. 10. Almendra A. E. 9. Badaloni T.	1. Guzman N. (G) 14. Garza J. 28. Joaquim 23. Romulo 2. Reyes F. 8. Gorriaran F. (C) 5. Araujo C. 20. Flores M. 11. Brunetta J. 77. Herrera O. 10. Gignac A.
Substitutes
232. Alonso R. 189. Casas B. 17. Cortez R. 12. Jimenez L. (G) 26. Lara E. 197. Moreno A. 210. Palacios J. 7. Rosero K. 24. Rossano F. 188. Tello I.	17. Aguirre R. 27. Angulo J. 7. Correa A. 33. Guerrero R. 16. Lainez D. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 30. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 4. Sanchez J. 204. Simeone 6. Vigon J.
Coaches
Varini M.	Pizarro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Badaloni T. ⚽, Leyva D. (A),
43', Leyva D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Joaquim ↓, Correa A. ↑,
55', Almendra A. E. ↓, Rosero K. ↑,
56', Flores M. ↓, Lainez D. ↑,
67', Araujo C. ↓, Aguirre R. ↑,
67', Reyes F. ↓, Sanchez Guevara D. A. ↑,
76', Ruiz J. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
76', Herrera O. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
82', Monreal R. 🟨,
82', Aguirre R. 🟨,
84', Monreal R. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
84', Mendez F. ↓, Lara E. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Correa A. ⚽, Aguirre R. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Necaxa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tigres is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 1 match, drew 8 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 16:34. (average 0.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.6:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	13:15	-2	13
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12:20	-8	8

Last Results with these Odds

Tigres UANL - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.75%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
11.04.26	Querétaro - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
03.04.26	Necaxa - Mazatlan	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Necaxa - Tijuana	3:0 ✺
13.03.26	Puebla - Necaxa	0:0 ✺
06.03.26	Necaxa - UNAM	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWTL
- Tigres UANL
CONCACAF Champions Cup
15.04.26	Seattle Sounders - Tigres UANL	3:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
11.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	4:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
08.04.26	Tigres UANL - Seattle Sounders	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
03.04.26	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Juárez - Tigres UANL	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
17.10.25	Tigres UANL - Necaxa	5:3
11.05.25	Tigres UANL - Necaxa	2:2
08.05.25	Necaxa - Tigres UANL	0:0
01.03.25	Necaxa - Tigres UANL	1:2
06.07.24	Tigres UANL - Necaxa	1:0
20.04.24	Tigres UANL - Necaxa	5:2
20.08.23	Necaxa - Tigres UANL	0:3

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