Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group A - Round 23

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday


	Tirsense		Dumiense

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.2	8.4
	1.32	4.3	9.2
	1.32	4.4	10.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.58)	4.3 ↑ (3.55)	9.37 ↑ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tirsense
68.9%

Draw
21.3%

Dumiense
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

25.6%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

24.9%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tirsense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tirsense's performance.

Dumiense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dumiense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tirsense than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tirsense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumiense than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dumiense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tirsense - Dumiense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Dias M. ⚽,
45+5', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', 2 - 1, Alves J. ⚽,
75', 3 - 1, Alex Reis ⚽,
78', 4 - 1, Cardoso G. ⚽,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Tirsense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dumiense is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Dumiense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Tirsense have a series of guest games.

In this match Tirsense is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tirsense won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:6 (average 1.6:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Tirsense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tirsense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
09.03.25	Atlético dos Arcos - Tirsense	0:2 ✺
02.03.25	Brito - Tirsense	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.02.25	Elvas - Tirsense	0:2 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
22.02.25	Tirsense - Pevidem	3:0 ✺
16.02.25	Vianense - Tirsense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WLWWL
- Dumiense FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
09.03.25	Dumiense - Pevidem	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Vianense - Dumiense	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Dumiense - Vila Real	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Joane - Dumiense	4:3 ✺
09.02.25	Dumiense - Bragança	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
30.11.24	Dumiense - Tirsense	0:1
14.01.24	Dumiense - Tirsense	2:2
27.08.23	Tirsense - Dumiense	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
12.03.23	Dumiense - Tirsense	2:3
27.11.22	Tirsense - Dumiense	1:2

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