Match Info

J3 League - Round 12

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Kanseki Stadium Tochigi (Utsunomiya) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	13:00	DAZN Japan


	Tochigi		Reilac Shiga

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.30	2.45
	2.65	3.45	2.20	Watch
	2.58	3.50	2.56
	1.98	3.53	3.55	Watch
	2.45	3.40	2.50
	2.57	3.46	2.57	Watch
	2.50	3.40	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (1.93)	3.43 ↑ (3.2)	2.61 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tochigi
37.7%

Draw
26.9%

Reilac Shiga
35.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

26.4%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tochigi's form might have worsened.

Reilac Shiga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Reilac Shiga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tochigi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reilac Shiga than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Reilac Shiga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tochigi - Reilac Shiga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Tashiro R. (G) 26. Tabata T. 5. Yanagi Y. (C) 37. Kimura Y. 6. Abe K. 11. Aoshima T. 15. Tsutsumi H. 13. Osone K. 80. Otabor K. 16. Myogan T. 9. Kondo Y.	21. Kushibiki M. (G) 14. Shiraishi T. 37. Nabeta A. (C) 2. Hirai S. 4. Ide K. 30. Yamaguchi R. 32. Umiguchi G. 7. Kubo E. 18. Akiyama S. 9. Sakamoto I. 23. Tatsuta S.
Substitutes
10. Igarashi T. 1. Kawata S. (G) 18. Matsushita Y. 77. Nakamura J. 17. Sugimori K. 14. Suzuki S. 20. Suzuki W. I. 24. Tabata R. 29. Yano K.	15. Kikushima T. 66. Matsubara K. 3. Miyagi M. 11. Miyake K. 41. Motoyoshi Y. (G) 8. Nakamura K. 24. Romero F. 48. Tanida S. 26. Tsunoda S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Tsutsumi H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Yamaguchi R. ↓, Miyake K. ↑,
48', Nabeta A. 🟨,
52', Umiguchi G. 🟨,
58', Kubo E. 🟨,
59', Akiyama S. ↓, Matsubara K. ↑,
59', Umiguchi G. ↓, Nakamura K. ↑,
63', Myogan T. ↓, Igarashi T. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Tsutsumi H. ⚽, Abe K. (A),
70', Tatsuta S. ↓, Kikushima T. ↑,
75', Aoshima T. ↓, Matsushita Y. ↑,
75', Otabor K. ↓, Sugimori K. ↑,
75', Kondo Y. ↓, Suzuki W. I. ↑,
81', Sakamoto I. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
82', Osone K. ↓, Suzuki S. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th and 11th).

Tochigi has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Reilac Shiga have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Reilac Shiga may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Tochigi is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Reilac Shiga	12	4	2	6	16:19	-3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	12:16	-4	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi SC
Japan J3 League
17.10.26	Ryūkyū - Tochigi	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Tochigi - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1 ✺
04.10.26	Kamatamare Sanuki - Tochigi	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Tochigi - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Reilac Shiga FC
Japan J3 League
18.10.26	Reilac Shiga - Sagamihara	0:2 ✺
10.10.26	Fukushima United - Reilac Shiga	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	Reilac Shiga - Roasso Kumamoto	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Nara Club - Reilac Shiga	4:1 ✺
20.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Ryūkyū	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTTLW

Upcoming Matches