Match Info

JAPAN: J2 LEAGUE - ROUND 16

Date: 17 May 2023, Wednesday

Location: Kanseki Stadium Tochigi (Utsunomiya)


	Tochigi		Tokyo Verdy

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.1	2	Watch
	3.8	2.85	1.95
	3.9	2.88	2.1
	4.42	3.12	2.05
	4	2.88	1.95
	4.1	3.18	2.01	Watch
	4	3	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↑ (3.15)	3 ↓ (3.15)	2.01 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi
22.9%

Draw
30.9%

Tokyo Verdy
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tochigi's form might have worsened.

Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tochigi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	31.6%	36.8%

Tochigi - Tokyo Verdy Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Tochigi will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tokyo Verdy: 15.1% – 58.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tochigi won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Tokyo Verdy will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Tochigi won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 17-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Tochigi won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi SC
Japan J2 League
13.05.23	Mito HollyHock - Tochigi	2:2 ✺
07.05.23	Blaublitz Akita - Tochigi	2:1 ✺
03.05.23	Tochigi - Zweigen Kanazawa	4:0 ✺
29.04.23	Shimizu S-Pulse - Tochigi	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	Tochigi - Iwaki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TLWLW
- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J2 League
13.05.23	Tokyo Verdy - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
07.05.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokyo Verdy	1:2 ✺
03.05.23	Tokyo Verdy - Júbilo Iwata	0:0 ✺
29.04.23	Mito HollyHock - Tokyo Verdy	0:2 ✺
22.04.23	Tokyo Verdy - Montedio Yamagata	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
06.07.22	Tochigi - Tokyo Verdy	0:1
27.02.22	Tokyo Verdy - Tochigi	3:0
21.08.21	Tochigi - Tokyo Verdy	2:2
26.06.21	Tokyo Verdy - Tochigi	2:1
17.10.20	Tokyo Verdy - Tochigi	0:0
05.07.20	Tochigi - Tokyo Verdy	1:1
31.07.19	Tochigi - Tokyo Verdy	0:0

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