Match Info

J3 League - Round 18

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: City Football Station (Tochigi)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tochigi City		Kagoshima United

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	2.65
				Watch
	2.7	3.35	2.56
				Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.62
	2.57	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.33	3.25	2.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.34)	3.22 ↑ (3.18)	2.61 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi City
36.9%

Draw
28.2%

Kagoshima United
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

28.3%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

27.8%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Kagoshima United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Tochigi City - Kagoshima United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tochigi City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.66) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH +0.25 - Kagoshima United (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tochigi City (votes: 1 - 50%). Kagoshima United (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Aizawa P. (G) 22. Suzuki H. 42. Jonjic M. 15. Sato Y. 5. Okui R. 10. Okaniwa Y. 20. Tosa R. 16. Kato J. 79. Saito K. 99. Hiraoka M. 77. Tanaka P. J.	1. Fujishima E. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 21. Soma J. 7. Chibu K. 3. Sugii H. 14. Yoshio K. 27. Yamaguchi T. 6. Watanabe E. 11. Fukuda M. 18. Kawamura K. 92. Nduka C.
Substitutes
1. Harada Y. (G) 33. Inui T. 28. Konishi K. 8. Mori T. 13. Oshima T. 14. Sekino G. 90. Utaka P. 26. Utsugi S. 23. Yoshida A.	20. Endo M. 5. Gaudencio 19. Inaba S. 13. Kondo Y. 31. Kumakura T. (G) 28. Renan 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 73. Tanaka T. 36. Yonezawa R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Soma J. 🟥,
45+5', Nduka C. ↓, Renan ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Watanabe E. ↓, Inaba S. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Aoki Y. ⚽,
62', 1 - 1, Hiraoka M. ⚽,
63', Fukuda M. ↓, Endo M. ↑,
68', Saito K. ↓, Utaka P. ↑,
68', Kato J. ↓, Oshima T. ↑,
76', Yoshio K. ↓, Tanaka T. ↑,
76', Kawamura K. ↓, Rodrigo Angelotti ↑,
76', Tosa R. ↓, Sekino G. ↑,
76', Hiraoka M. ↓, Yoshida A. ↑,
81', Tanaka P. J. ↓, Mori T. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Mori T. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi City FC
Japan J3 League
21.06.25	Nara Club - Tochigi City	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Tochigi City	1:2 ✺
08.06.25	Tochigi City - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	Gainare Tottori - Tochigi City	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	Tochigi City - Gifu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLW
- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
21.06.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Kagoshima United - Vanraure Hachinohe	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - Kagoshima United	2:1 ✺
Japan J3 League
07.06.25	Kagoshima United - Gifu	3:2 ✺
31.05.25	Osaka - Kagoshima United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTLWL

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