Match Info

CONCACAF Champions Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Said Martinez H. (Hon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	OneSoccer
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Haiti	Tele Haiti
India	FanCode, FanCode
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX One, FOX Sports 1, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Toluca		Los Angeles Galaxy

	1	X	2
	1.2	7.5	11	Watch
	1.42	4.6	6.75
	1.17	6.5	11.5	Watch
	1.19	7.23	14.57
	1.26	6.08	8.75	Watch
	1.18	6.5	11
	1.23	7.96	11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.53)	6.62 ↑ (3.83)	10.65 ↑ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
76.8%

Draw
14.3%

Los Angeles Galaxy
8.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

23.6%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

22.9%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

Los Angeles Galaxy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Los Angeles Galaxy might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Los Angeles Galaxy than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Los Angeles Galaxy could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	10.5%	5.3%

Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Toluca (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 19. Simon S. 11. Helinho 8. Castro N. 5. Romero F. 20. Gallardo J. 10. Angulo J. 26. Paulinho 9. Vega A. (C)	12. Marcinkowski J. (C) 2. Yamane M. 25. Garces C. 14. Nelson J. 4. Yoshida M. 6. Cerrillo E. 22. Wynder E. 11. Gabriel Pec 26. Miller H. 27. Thommy E. 99. Joao Klauss
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 25. del Villar E. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Isais M. 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 27. Rossi F. 23. Virgen O.	3. Aude J. 19. Cuevas M. 76. Elgersma T. 15. Haak J. 1. Micovic N. (G) 16. Parente I. 57. Placias J. 24. Ramos R. 18. Reus M. 20. Rindov C. 8. Sanabria L. 31. Scott B. (G)
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Vanney G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Castro N. ⚽, Pereira F. (A),
36', Cerrillo E. 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
45+1', Pereira F. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
59', Wynder E. ↓, Reus M. ↑,
59', Miller H. ↓, Haak J. ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Gabriel Pec ⚽, Reus M. (A),
70', Helinho ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
72', Nelson J. ↓, Aude J. ↑,
73', 3 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
78', 3 - 2, Reus M. ⚽, Aude J. (A),
80', Thommy E. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
80', Yamane M. ↓, Cuevas M. ↑,
84', Gallardo J. ↓, Isais M. ↑,
84', Vega A. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
85', Simon S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
86', 4 - 2, Paulinho ⚽,
89', Bruno Mendez 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Toluca is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Toluca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
04.04.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Pachuca - Toluca	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.03.26	Toluca - San Diego	4:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
14.03.26	Toluca - Atlas	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
11.03.26	San Diego - Toluca	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTWTL
- Los Angeles Galaxy
MLS
04.04.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - Minnesota United	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Portland Timbers - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
19.03.26	Mount Pleasant - Los Angeles Galaxy	0:3 ✺
MLS
14.03.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - Sporting Kansas City	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
11.03.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - Mount Pleasant	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeones Cup
01.10.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca	2:3

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