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Current Win Probability
Toluca 67.3%
Draw 20.1%
Atlas 12.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
61.5%
22.5%
16%
Our Initial ML Estimation
63.9%
21.7%
15.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.
Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Toluca - Atlas Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Beltran R. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 8. Castro N. 11. Helinho 10. Angulo J. 9. Vega A. (C) 16. Vinas F.
12. Vargas C. (C) 3. Sanchez J. 13. Aguirre G. 28. Capasso M. 16. Valenzuela M. 5. Rodriguez J. 58. Gonzalez A. 15. Ramirez P. 10. Esteves L. 9. Monzon F. 27. Rios De Alba V. H.
Substitutes
184. Aceves S. 24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 25. del Villar E. 7. Guzman V. 13. Luan 26. Paulinho 15. Perez P. 18. Shrem D. (G) 23. Virgen O.
11. Duk 251. Gamboa L. 23. Hernandez S. 17. Lozano J. 203. Martin J. 18. Montiel E. 4. Mora A. 22. Sanchez A. (G) 44. Sanchez J. 192. Serrato J.
Coaches
Mohamed A.
Crespo H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Vega A. (Penalty Awarded),
22', 2 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
24', Capasso M. 🟨,
29', 3 - 0, Vinas F. ⚽, Bruno Mendez (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Vinas F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
46', Gonzalez A. ↓, Duk ↑,
46', Ramirez P. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
51', 3 - 1, Monzon F. ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
53', 4 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
57', Helinho 🟨,
57', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
58', Helinho ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
60', 5 - 1, Rodriguez J. (Own goal),
62', Sanchez J. ↓, Montiel E. ↑,
72', Angulo J. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
72', Castro N. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
79', 5 - 2, Duk ⚽,
80', Esteves L. ↓, Serrato J. ↑,
81', Serrato J. 🟨,
83', Vega A. ↓, Luan ↑,
87', Capasso M. ↓, Mora A. ↑,
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
Toluca is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Atlas is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
In this match, Toluca is the clear favorite.
There will not play in Toluca: Lopez I.
(Knee Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Knee Injury)
Simon S.
(Calf Injury)
There are questionable in Toluca: Garcia L.
(Thigh Injury)
Gutierrez E.
(Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Atlas: Zaldivar E.
(Injury)
We predict that Toluca will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 35:24. (average 1.8:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:16. (average 2.5:1.6).
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Beltran R. (G) 
Bruno Mendez 
Romero F. 
Helinho 
Vargas C. (C) 
Esteves L. 
Arce F. 
Duk 
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