Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Miguel Hidalgo (Pachuca de Soto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Mexico	FOX+, FOX One
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Pachuca		Toluca

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.5	2.45	Watch
	2.68	3.35	2.52	Watch
	2.77	3.6	2.59
	2.83	3.39	2.48	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.4
	2.74	3.55	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↓ (3.13)	3.42 ↓ (3.43)	2.5 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pachuca
34.9%

Draw
27.5%

Toluca
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

27.6%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

26.9%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pachuca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Pachuca - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Pachuca will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Moreno C. (C) 14. Sanchez C. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 2. Barreto S. D. 12. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 16. Rivera C. 8. Guzman V. 29. Kenedy 28. Montiel E. 11. Idrissi O. 10. Valencia E.	22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 25. del Villar E. 17. Isais M. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 19. Simon S. 8. Castro N. 15. Perez P. 29. Diaz J.
Substitutes
187. Alvarez G. 26. Bautista A. 13. Berlanga J. 18. Dominguez A. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 21. Lopez R. 5. Pedraza P. 7. Quinones L. 188. Rodriguez S. 23. Rondon S.	35. Alvarez A. 10. Angulo J. 24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 11. Helinho 206. Orta E. 27. Rossi F.
Coaches
Solari E.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Valencia E. (Penalty Awarded),
13', Idrissi O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Simon S. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
46', Idrissi O. ↓, Dominguez A. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Kenedy ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),
56', Bruno Mendez ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
56', Ruiz M. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
56', Castro N. ↓, Helinho ↑,
60', Barreto S. D. 🟨,
63', Rossi F. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
68', Valencia E. ↓, Rondon S. ↑,
68', Montiel E. ↓, Bautista A. ↑,
80', Kenedy ↓, Quinones L. ↑,
86', Guzman V. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Pachuca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Toluca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Pachuca: Micolta A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Toluca: Gallardo J. (International duty) Vega A. (International duty)

There are questionable in Pachuca: Mozo A. (Broken Leg) Sanchez C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Virgen O. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 36:36. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Pachuca won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
12	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15:11	4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Pachuca - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 30.21%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Toluca - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.22%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
03.05.26	Toluca - Pachuca	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Pachuca - UNAM	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Tijuana - Pachuca	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Monterrey - Pachuca	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	Pachuca - Santos Laguna	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLLWW
- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF Champions Cup
06.05.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	4:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
03.05.26	Toluca - Pachuca	0:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
29.04.26	Los Angeles - Toluca	2:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Toluca - Club León	4:1 ✺
22.04.26	Mazatlan - Toluca	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
03.05.26	Toluca - Pachuca	0:1
22.03.26	Pachuca - Toluca	1:1
26.10.25	Toluca - Pachuca	2:2
29.03.25	Toluca - Pachuca	3:2
17.09.24	Pachuca - Toluca	2:2
30.03.24	Pachuca - Toluca	2:3
03.09.23	Toluca - Pachuca	5:0

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