Match Info

CONCACAF Champions Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX One, Fox Sports 2, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+


	Toluca		San Diego

	1	X	2
	1.22	7.5	9.5	Watch
	1.21	6.5	9.2	Watch
	1.25	7.31	9.6
	1.25	6.34	8.60	Watch
	1.2	6	9.5
	1.25	7.88	9.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.36)	6.92 ↑ (4.65)	9.4 ↑ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
76.4%

Draw
13.6%

San Diego
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

19.7%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

18.9%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

San Diego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Toluca - San Diego Predictions

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. (C) 11. Helinho 5. Romero F. 8. Castro N. 10. Angulo J. 29. Diaz J. 26. Paulinho	18. Ferree D. (G) 33. Verhoeven O. 97. McVey C. 25. Pilcher I. 27. Bombino L. 20. Godoy A. 6. Tverskov J. (C) 8. Valakari O. 10. Dreyer A. 9. Morgan L. 90. Pellegrino A.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 25. del Villar E. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Isais M. 13. Luan 27. Rossi F. 9. Vega A. 23. Virgen O.	24. Boateng E. 1. dos Santos C. J. (G) 21. Duke B. 22. Eisner W. 2. Kumado W. 77. Mighten A. 29. Saidi A. 13. Sisniega P. (G) 17. Soe O. 15. Soma P. 19. Vazquez D. 14. Zamble B. B.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Varas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Paulinho 🟨,
40', McVey C. 🟨,
40', Diaz J. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽,
44', Tverskov J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Castro N. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
56', 2 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
59', 3 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽,
64', Pilcher I. ↓, Soe O. ↑,
65', Diaz J. ↓, Vega A. ↑,
69', Helinho ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
71', Verhoeven O. ↓, Eisner W. ↑,
71', Godoy A. ↓, Mighten A. ↑,
80', Valakari O. ↓, Saidi A. ↑,
85', McVey C. 🟨,
87', Angulo J. 🟨,
89', Angulo J. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
89', Pereira F. ↓, Luan ↑,
90+2', 4 - 0, Gallardo J. ⚽, Vega A. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 2-3. Second leg.

Toluca is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

San Diego is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Toluca is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Toluca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
14.03.26	Toluca - Atlas	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
11.03.26	San Diego - Toluca	3:2 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
08.03.26	Toluca - Juárez	3:1 ✺
03.03.26	UNAM - Toluca	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLWWW
- San Diego FC
MLS
14.03.26	FC Dallas - San Diego	3:3 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
11.03.26	San Diego - Toluca	3:2 ✺
MLS
07.03.26	Sporting Kansas City - San Diego	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	San Diego - St. Louis City	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	San Diego - CF Montréal	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions Cup
11.03.26	San Diego - Toluca	3:2

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