Match Info

Leagues Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Imagen Television
Usa	FOX Sports 1, SportsEngine Play, TUDN
World	Apple TV International


	Toluca		Austin FC

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.80	5.50	Watch
	1.58	3.70	4.75
	1.70	3.60	5.00
	1.65	4.36	5.94
	1.71	3.87	4.79	Watch
	1.59	4.10	5.45
	1.63	3.84	5.56	Watch
	1.64	4.00	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (2)	3.91 ↑ (3.6)	5.25 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
57.7%

Draw
24.2%

Austin FC
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

25%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

24.7%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

Austin FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Austin FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Austin FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Toluca - Austin FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 20. Gallardo J. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 5. Romero F. 8. Castro N. 11. Helinho 10. Angulo J. 9. Vega A. (C) 16. Vinas F.	1. Stuver B. (G) 4. Hines-Ike B. 5. Svatok O. 29. Guilherme Biro 30. Rosales J. 14. Sabovic B. 6. Sanchez I. (C) 17. Gallagher J. 38. Torres E. 21. Ramirez C. 10. Uzuni M.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 25. del Villar E. 29. Diaz Price J. 7. Guzman V. 13. Luan 192. Navarrete L. 15. Perez P. 18. Shrem D. (G) 23. Virgen O.	24. Alastuey J. 15. Bell J. 32. Burton M. 3. Desler M. 35. Djordjevic M. 39. Farrar C. (G) 23. Kolmanic Z. 12. Las D. (G) 77. Placheta P. 2. Thomas R. 11. Torres F. 9. Vazquez B.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Arnaud D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Sabovic B. 🟨,
40', Rosales J. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ramirez C. ↓, Desler M. ↑,
50', Svatok O. 🟨,
53', 1 - 0, Helinho (Penalty Awarded),
66', Castro N. 🟨,
67', Gallagher J. ↓, Placheta P. ↑,
67', Svatok O. ↓, Alastuey J. ↑,
69', Pereira F. 🟨,
76', Castro N. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
76', Vega A. ↓, Diaz Price J. ↑,
78', Torres E. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
78', Sabovic B. ↓, Vazquez B. ↑,
81', Angulo J. ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
84', Garcia Caprizo B. A. 🟨,
86', Helinho ↓, Perez P. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 0, Diaz Price J. ⚽, del Villar E. (A),

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toluca is the undisputed favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Toluca - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 45%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
21.08.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Atlante - Toluca	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	Toluca - FC Dallas	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	0:1 ✺
05.08.26	Toluca - Seattle Sounders	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWLW
- Austin FC
MLS
22.08.26	Austin FC - Philadelphia Union	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Seattle Sounders - Austin FC	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Austin FC - FC Dallas	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.26	Club América - Austin FC	1:2 penalties ✺
06.08.26	Austin FC - Tijuana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 TWLWW

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