Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 10

Date: 29 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Tombense		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3	3.4
				Watch
	2.06	3.1	3.97
				Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.5
	1.95	3.08	3.82	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.2)	3.04 ↓ (3.3)	3.57 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tombense
44.4%

Draw
30%

Náutico Capibaribe
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

27.7%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

25.8%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tombense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 5. Fabricio Dias 3. Ianson 10. Ingro 11. Jefferson Renan 2. Julio Henrique 6. Kaike 8. Lucas Mila 7. Pedro Oliveira 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 9. Ze Eduardo	19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 12. Kelvin 8. Marco Antonio 25. Mateus Silva 20. Patrick Allan 3. Rayan 7. Vinicius (C)
Substitutes
21. Adson 25. Anderson Ligeiro 17. Andre Cardoso 20. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 15. Fernando 16. Joao Vitor 22. Jupi 13. Leo Pereira 19. Rafael Silva 18. Rickson 14. Wesley	18. Auremir 11. Helio Borges 13. Indio 15. Kayon 17. Marcos Ytalo 26. Raimar 41. Samuel 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson
Coaches
Raul Cabral	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Igor Pereira 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Bruno Mezenga ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fabricio Dias ↓, Rickson ↑,
62', Kelvin ↓, Wenderson ↑,
62', Patrick Allan ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Helio Borges ⚽,
66', Arnaldo ↓, Marcos Ytalo ↑,
66', Lucas Mila 🟨,
72', Lucas Mila ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
72', Julio Henrique ↓, Cleiton ↑,
72', Igor Pereira ↓, Auremir ↑,
74', Wenderson 🟨,
75', Marco Antonio 🟨,
77', Marco Antonio ↓, Samuel ↑,
81', Pedro Oliveira ↓, Rafael Silva ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 11).

In recent matches, Tombense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Náutico is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tombense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tombense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Tombense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
15.06.25	Brusque - Tombense	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Tombense - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ypiranga - Tombense	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	Tombense - CS Alagoano	0:0 ✺
11.05.25	Londrina - Tombense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTLTT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
16.06.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Maringá	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	Bahia - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
31.05.25	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
24.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
07.07.24	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
04.10.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Tombense	4:3
26.06.22	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1

Upcoming Matches