Match Info

RUSSIA: FNL - ROUND 9

Date: 11 September 2023, Monday

Location: Stadion Eduarda Strelcova (Moscow)

Referee: Cheremnykh M. (Rus)


	Torpedo Moscow		Akron Tolyatti

	1	X	2
	2.49	3.16	2.95
	2.45	3.18	2.84	Watch
	2.38	3.15	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.05)	3.16 ↓ (3.4)	2.85 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
38%

Draw
29.3%

Akron Tolyatti
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

27.4%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

26.8%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Torpedo Moscow's form might have worsened.

Akron Tolyatti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Akron Tolyatti's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Torpedo Moscow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Akron Tolyatti than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Akron Tolyatti, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	57.1%	0%

Torpedo Moscow - Akron Tolyatti Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Torpedo will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Baburin E. (G) 2. Borodin S. 97. Curic M. 35. Enin I. 21. Gongadze G. 4. Kalugin N. 10. Lebedenko I. (C) 69. Manelov I. 16. Reyna Y. 77. Yuzepchuk R. 23. Zhuravlev Y.	1. Volkov S. (G) 26. Andjelkovic N. 27. Chudin I. 15. Danilkin E. 70. Eldarushev A. 22. Galkin V. 13. Khubaev D. 18. Kilin A. (C) 52. Konyukhov V. 6. Makarov S. 77. Savichev K.
Substitutes
89. Cherviakov R. 17. Gorbunov I. . Gromyko V. 3. Ivankov A. 65. Moskvichev V. 15. Orekhov A. 70. Poloz D. 11. Shamkin D. 99. Shevchenko G. 9. Stefanovich I. 14. Usanov A. 95. Volkov M. (G)	7. Apekov R. 9. Azarov V. 14. Bokoev M. 23. Danilin K. 8. Pesegov E. 11. Ponce A. 19. Sangare D. (G)
Coaches
Clotet P.	Kaleshin E.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 5).

Torpedo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Akron is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Torpedo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Torpedo won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Torpedo won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian FNL
04.09.23	Rodina Moscow - Torpedo Moscow	2:0 ✺
28.08.23	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	1:1 ✺
21.08.23	Torpedo Moscow - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	2:1 ✺
14.08.23	Alania Vladikavkaz - Torpedo Moscow	2:0 ✺
05.08.23	Torpedo Moscow - Sokol Saratov	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTWLL
- Akron Tolyatti
Russian FNL
03.09.23	Akron Tolyatti - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:0 ✺
27.08.23	Akron Tolyatti - Tyumen	1:2 ✺
20.08.23	Leningradets - Akron Tolyatti	1:1 ✺
13.08.23	SKA Khabarovsk - Akron Tolyatti	1:0 ✺
06.08.23	Akron Tolyatti - Alania Vladikavkaz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
26.02.23	Akron Tolyatti - Torpedo Moscow	2:0
Russian FNL
06.04.22	Torpedo Moscow - Akron Tolyatti	0:0
25.09.21	Akron Tolyatti - Torpedo Moscow	1:0
21.11.20	Akron Tolyatti - Torpedo Moscow	0:1
12.08.20	Torpedo Moscow - Akron Tolyatti	1:1

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