Match Info

Date: 15 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Luzhniki Arena (Moscow)

Referee: Kukulyak E. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Torpedo Moscow		Lokomotiv Moscow

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.65	1.77
	4.45	3.89	1.81
	4.45	3.84	1.82
	4.4	3.75	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↑ (3.33)	3.78 ↑ (3.53)	1.8 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
21.8%

Draw
25.2%

Lokomotiv Moscow
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

27%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

27%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Torpedo Moscow's form might have worsened.

Lokomotiv Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lokomotiv Moscow's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Torpedo Moscow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lokomotiv Moscow, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	17.6%	64.7%

Torpedo Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Torpedo will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Lokomotiv will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lokomotiv: 42% – 87.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).

Torpedo has the most likely position - 16 (51.89%), has project points - 22, has currently - 6, has a good chance of relegated (81%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lokomotiv has the most likely position - 13 (14.32%), has project points - 31, has currently - 9, has a chance of relegated (34%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 32, importance 44, match rating 38. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Lokomotiv is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Torpedo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Torpedo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian Premier League
09.10.22	Torpedo Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod	0:0 ✺
02.10.22	Fakel - Torpedo Moscow	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
28.09.22	Ural - Torpedo Moscow	1:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
17.09.22	Torpedo Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
14.09.22	Sochi - Torpedo Moscow	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33 TTLWW
- Lokomotiv Moscow
Russian Premier League
08.10.22	Sochi - Lokomotiv Moscow	4:0 ✺
01.10.22	Lokomotiv Moscow - Ural	2:4 ✺
Russian Cup
28.09.22	Khimki - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:5 ✺
Russian Premier League
18.09.22	Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
14.09.22	Lokomotiv Moscow - Krasnodar	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
08.04.15	Lokomotiv Moscow - Torpedo Moscow	2:0
08.11.14	Torpedo Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:1

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