Match Info

FNL - Round 17

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Referee: Sidorin A. (Rus)


	Fakel		Torpedo Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.04	3.23	4.04	Watch
	1.93	3.24	4.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.01)	3.24 ↓ (3.32)	4.13 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
47.7%

Draw
29.3%

Torpedo Moscow
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

28.8%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

28.5%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Torpedo Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Fakel - Torpedo Moscow Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frolkin D. (G) 2. Cherov V. 27. Magkeev S. 20. Yurganov I. 99. Giorgobiani N. 23. Yakimov V. 10. Alshin I. 8. Bagamaev A. 52. Netfullin R. 21. Gongadze G. 19. Pusi B.	74. Volkov M. (G) 90. Roganovic B. 4. Borodin S. 22. Kozhemyakin O. 84. Churilov V. 19. Baytukov R. 97. Curic M. 8. Galoyan A. 73. Shitov V. 79. Kashtanov A. 7. Yushin A.
Substitutes
70. Abdokov N. 77. Bagatelia L. 4. Dziov M. 5. Gabaraev A. 95. Gaponov I. 17. Kovalev A. 97. Magomedov B. 11. Motpan N. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 18. Simonov K. 9. Turishchev M. 93. Uridia M.	38. Chupayov A. 23. Danilin K. 15. Danilkin E. 46. Dunay V. 3. Ivankov A. 21. Lomakin A. 5. Moskvichev V. 27. Orekhov A. 99. Shevchenko G. 25. Soldatenko R. (G) 55. Stepanov D.
Coaches
Vasilenko O.	Kononov O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Galoyan A. 🟨,
27', Churilov V. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Giorgobiani N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gongadze G. ↓, Motpan N. ↑,
52', Galoyan A. 🟨,
57', Shitov V. ↓, Moskvichev V. ↑,
57', Churilov V. ↓, Dunay V. ↑,
66', Bagamaev A. ↓, Simonov K. ↑,
66', Yushin A. ↓, Danilin K. ↑,
66', Baytukov R. ↓, Shevchenko G. ↑,
69', Simonov K. 🟨,
72', Yakimov V. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
81', Motpan N. 🟨,
82', Curic M. ↓, Lomakin A. ↑,
84', Pusi B. ↓, Uridia M. ↑,
84', Alshin I. ↓, Kovalev A. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Magomedov B. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 1.

In recent matches, Fakel has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Torpedo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Torpedo has had a series of home games.

In this match, Fakel is a strong favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Fakel won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian Cup
30.10.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	2:3 ✺
Russian FNL
26.10.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Fakel	1:0 ✺
20.10.25	Fakel - Rotor	4:0 ✺
Russian Cup
16.10.25	Fakel - Ural	1:0 ✺
Russian FNL
11.10.25	Shinnik - Fakel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLWWW
- Torpedo Moscow
Russian Cup
29.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Kuban-Kholding	2:1 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
25.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	3:2 ✺
20.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Shinnik	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
16.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Veles Moscow	3:0 ✺
Russian FNL
11.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.02.25	Torpedo Moscow - Fakel	1:2
Russian Premier League
08.04.23	Torpedo Moscow - Fakel	2:0
Club Friendly
08.02.23	Torpedo Moscow - Fakel	1:1
Russian Premier League
02.10.22	Fakel - Torpedo Moscow	2:2
Club Friendly
09.07.22	Torpedo Moscow - Fakel	N/A
09.07.22	Torpedo Moscow - Fakel	1:2
Russian FNL
19.03.22	Fakel - Torpedo Moscow	0:1

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