Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Toulouse		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.2	3.55	2.18	Watch
	3.33	3.6	2.25
	3.22	3.58	2.19	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.15
	3.3	3.68	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (3.24)	3.52 ↓ (3.57)	2.18 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
29.8%

Draw
26.8%

Olympique Marseille
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

26.5%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

27%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	18.7%	62.5%

Toulouse - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 6 - 18.8%). Marseille will win (votes: 20 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 45.7% – 79.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Toulouse (1.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Marseille (1.33) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Marseille (votes: 10 - 76.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 3. McKenzie M. 12. Kamanzi W. 23. Casseres C. 18. Demba P. 24. Methalie D. 15. Donnum A. 10. Gboho Y. 20. Emersonn	1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 28. Pavard B. 5. Balerdi L. 32. Medina F. 19. Kondogbia G. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 27. Timber Q. 14. Paixao I. 17. Aubameyang P.
Substitutes
44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 35. Koumbassa S. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.	12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 33. Emerson 9. Gouiri A. 35. Lago E. 6. Nnadi T. 11. Nwaneri E. 20. Traore H. J. 18. Vermeeren A.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Beye H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Medina F. 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Emersonn ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
59', Donnum A. 🟨,
59', Greenwood M. 🟨,
60', Weah T. 🟨,
64', McKenzie M. 🟨,
66', Greenwood M. ↓, Gouiri A. ↑,
66', Kondogbia G. ↓, Nnadi T. ↑,
69', Casseres C. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
78', Kamanzi W. ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
79', Methalie D. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
82', Timber Q. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
83', Aubameyang P. ↓, Emerson ↑,
84', Demba P. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Toulouse has had a series of away games.

Marseille might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Cresswell C. (Injury) Dominguez A. (Inactive) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Nadir B. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:42. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:21. (average 1.2:2.1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Marseille: 1.19% Toulouse: 0.43%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
28.02.26	Rennes - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Angers - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTLL
- Olympique Marseille
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Brest - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
04.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:3 penalties
French Ligue 1
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2
06.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	3:2
31.08.24	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	1:3
21.04.24	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	2:2
17.09.23	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	0:0
19.02.23	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	2:3

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