Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 23

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brest		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.75	1.85	Watch
	3.95	3.55	1.95	Watch
	4.05	3.91	1.9
	3.9	3.84	1.89	Watch
	3.7	3.5	1.85
	4.06	3.96	1.94	Watch
	3.75	3.75	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↓ (3.92)	3.75 ↑ (3.71)	1.9 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
24.4%

Draw
25.4%

Olympique Marseille
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24%

25.4%

50.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

24.6%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.9%	10.9%	78.2%

Brest - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Brest (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (43 of 55 users predict this - 78.18%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.26% – 89.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Marseille (votes: 13 - 86.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 27. Guindo D. 8. Magnetti H. 13. Chotard J. 10. Del Castillo R. 23. Doumbia K. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 19. Ajorque L.	1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 18. Vermeeren A. 27. Timber Q. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.
Substitutes
44. Coulibaly S. 14. Labeau Lascary R. 71. Le Guen R. 2. Locko B. 1. Majecki R. (G) 33. Makalou H. 99. Mboup P. 24. Tousart L. 12. Zogbe L.	8. Abdelli H. 17. Aubameyang P. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 19. Kondogbia G. 32. Medina F. 26. Nadir B. 11. Nwaneri E. 20. Traore H. J.
Coaches
Roy E.	Beye H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Ajorque L. ⚽,
29', 2 - 0, Ajorque L. ⚽, Magnetti H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vermeeren A. ↓, Aubameyang P. ↑,
67', Hojbjerg P. 🟨,
71', Ajorque L. 🟨,
71', Paixao I. ↓, Traore H. J. ↑,
71', Gouiri A. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
73', Dina Ebimbe J. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
79', Timber Q. 🟨,
79', Timber Q. ↓, Abdelli H. ↑,
79', Doumbia K. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
82', Greenwood M. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Del Castillo R. ↓, Locko B. ↑,
89', Hojbjerg P. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
90', Nwaneri E. 🟨,
90+6', Nadir B. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Marseille could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Brest: Balde M. (Injury) Coulibaly S. (Thigh Injury) Locko B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Brest won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:32. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 1.1:2.1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Marseille: 1.57% Brest: 0.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Brest	5	1	2	2	7:8	-1	5
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Lille - Brest	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Brest - Lorient	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Nice - Brest	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Brest - Toulouse	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Lyon - Brest	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWTLL
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Club Brugge - Olympique Marseille	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
08.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	3:0
27.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	4:1
17.08.24	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:5
18.02.24	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:0
26.08.23	Olympique Marseille - Brest	2:0
27.05.23	Olympique Marseille - Brest	1:2
14.08.22	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:1

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