Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	16:45	Disney+
Armenia	23:45	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Azerbaijan	23:45	Setanta Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	21:45	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	03:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	21:45	Viaplay
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	23:45	Setanta Sport 3, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	03:45	beIN Sports 3
Israel	21:45	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	04:45	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	01:45	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	22:45	Gotv
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	01:45	Setanta Sports 2
Mexico	13:45	FOX One
Moldova	21:45	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
Nigeria	20:45	Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	20:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	14:45	Disney+
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV3
Russia	22:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South Africa	21:45	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 4
South Korea	04:45	Coupang Play
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	00:45	Setanta Sports 2
Turkey	22:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkmenistan	00:45	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	16:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Uzbekistan	00:45	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	15:45	Disney+
Vietnam	02:45	ON Plus, TV 360
International	19:45	Onefootball


	Olympique Marseille		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.75	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.7	3.5
	1.95	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.99	3.79	3.89
	1.95	3.72	3.77	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	2	3.79	3.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.94)	3.69 ↑ (3.66)	3.74 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
48.7%

Draw
25.8%

Lyon
25.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.5%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

26.2%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.4%	20%	15.6%

Olympique Marseille - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 29 - 64.4%). Lyon will win (votes: 7 - 15.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 50.4% – 78.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Lyon (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Marseille (1.96) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Lyon (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Marseille (1.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 13 - 65%). Lyon (votes: 3 - 15%). Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 5. Balerdi L. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 19. Kondogbia G. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 27. Timber Q. 20. Traore H. J. 17. Aubameyang P.	1. Greif D. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 22. Mata C. 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 23. Morton T. 6. Tessmann T. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 99. Nartey N. 9. Endrick 77. Yaremchuk R.
Substitutes
8. Abdelli H. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 32. Medina F. 6. Nnadi T. 11. Nwaneri E. 14. Paixao I. 28. Pavard B. 18. Vermeeren A.	16. Abner Vinicius 39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 33. Hateboer H. 45. Himbert R. 85. Kamara N. 7. Karabec A. 44. Merah K.
Coaches
Beye H.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Tolisso C. ⚽, Endrick (A),
30', Mata C. 🟨,
45+1', Morton T. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Timber Q. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Paixao I. ⚽, Hojbjerg P. (A),
60', Yaremchuk R. ↓, Himbert R. ↑,
63', Traore H. J. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
74', Kondogbia G. 🟨,
76', 1 - 2, Himbert R. ⚽, Endrick (A),
81', 2 - 2, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
83', Aguerd N. 🟨,
84', Weah T. ↓, Pavard B. ↑,
85', Kondogbia G. ↓, Abdelli H. ↑,
88', Tagliafico N. ↓, Abner Vinicius ↑,
90+1', 3 - 2, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Nwaneri E. (A),
90+4', Greenwood M. ↓, Nnadi T. ↑,
90+8', Abdelli H. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 3.

Marseille has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lyon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marseille is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Kluivert R. (Inactive) Mangala O. (Injury) Moreira A. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Sulc P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:32. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.6:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Lyon	8	4	2	2	13:7	6	14
9	Marseille	8	4	0	4	18:13	5	12

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lyon: 2.81% Marseille: 0.89%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
20.02.26	Brest - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLWT
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Strasbourg - Lyon	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lyon - Nice	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Nantes - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lyon - Laval	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Lyon - Lille	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
31.08.25	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0
02.02.25	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2
22.09.24	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	2:3
04.02.24	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0
06.12.23	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:0
23.04.23	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:2
06.11.22	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	1:0

Upcoming Matches