Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.75	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.7	3.5
	1.95	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.99	3.79	3.89
	1.95	3.72	3.77	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	2	3.79	3.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.94)	3.69 ↑ (3.66)	3.74 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
48.7%

Draw
25.8%

Lyon
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

27.2%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.4%	20%	15.6%

Olympique Marseille - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 29 - 64.4%). Lyon will win (votes: 7 - 15.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 50.4% – 78.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Lyon (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Marseille (1.96) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Lyon (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Marseille (1.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 13 - 65%). Lyon (votes: 3 - 15%). Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 5. Balerdi L. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 19. Kondogbia G. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 27. Timber Q. 20. Traore H. J. 17. Aubameyang P.	1. Greif D. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 22. Mata C. 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 23. Morton T. 6. Tessmann T. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 99. Nartey N. 9. Endrick 77. Yaremchuk R.
Substitutes
8. Abdelli H. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 32. Medina F. 6. Nnadi T. 11. Nwaneri E. 14. Paixao I. 28. Pavard B. 18. Vermeeren A.	16. Abner Vinicius 39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 33. Hateboer H. 45. Himbert R. 85. Kamara N. 7. Karabec A. 44. Merah K.
Coaches
Beye H.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Tolisso C. ⚽, Endrick (A),
30', Mata C. 🟨,
45+1', Morton T. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Timber Q. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Paixao I. ⚽, Hojbjerg P. (A),
60', Yaremchuk R. ↓, Himbert R. ↑,
63', Traore H. J. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
74', Kondogbia G. 🟨,
76', 1 - 2, Himbert R. ⚽, Endrick (A),
81', 2 - 2, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
83', Aguerd N. 🟨,
84', Weah T. ↓, Pavard B. ↑,
85', Kondogbia G. ↓, Abdelli H. ↑,
88', Tagliafico N. ↓, Abner Vinicius ↑,
90+1', 3 - 2, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Nwaneri E. (A),
90+4', Greenwood M. ↓, Nnadi T. ↑,
90+8', Abdelli H. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 3.

Marseille has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lyon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marseille is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Kluivert R. (Inactive) Mangala O. (Injury) Moreira A. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Sulc P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:32. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.6:1.6).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lyon: 3.8% Marseille: 1.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lyon	6	3	2	1	11:4	7	11
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
20.02.26	Brest - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLWT
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Strasbourg - Lyon	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lyon - Nice	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Nantes - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lyon - Laval	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Lyon - Lille	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
31.08.25	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0
02.02.25	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2
22.09.24	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	2:3
04.02.24	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0
06.12.23	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:0
23.04.23	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:2
06.11.22	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	1:0

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