Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Roazhon Park (Rennes)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rennes		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.45	3.7	Watch
	2.01	3.62	3.91
	1.95	3.6	3.82	Watch
	2	3.3	3.6
	2.01	3.7	3.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.3)	3.55 ↑ (3.43)	3.76 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rennes
47.8%

Draw
26.8%

Toulouse
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

27.5%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

28.1%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rennes's performance.

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulouse might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rennes than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rennes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulouse could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	8.3%	2.8%

Rennes - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 72 users predict this event. Rennes will win (votes: 64 - 88.9%). Toulouse will win (votes: 2 - 2.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rennes: 81.6% – 96.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Rennes (2.00) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1.5 - Toulouse (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rennes will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Rennes (votes: 28 - 87.5%). Toulouse (votes: 2 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Samba B. (G) 18. Nagida M. 24. Rouault A. 3. Brassier L. 26. Merlin Q. 21. Rongier V. (C) 45. Camara M. 11. Tamari M. 17. Szymanski S. 70. Nordin A. 9. Lepaul E.	1. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. (C) 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 12. Kamanzi W. 45. Vossah A. 18. Demba P. 24. Methalie D. 7. Vignolo J. 10. Gboho Y. 11. Hidalgo S.
Substitutes
48. Ait Boudlal A. 10. Blas L. 6. Cisse D. 69. Do Marcolino H. 7. Embolo B. 65. Mukiele N. 36. Seidu A. 50. Silistrie M. (G) 77. Zabiri Y.	44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 20. Emersonn 42. Garondo T. 16. Haug K. (G) 35. Koumbassa S. 34. Lahmadi N. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M.
Coaches
Haise F.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Lepaul E. 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Nordin A. ⚽,
42', Demba P. 🟨,
45+1', Cresswell C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vignolo J. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
62', Vossah A. 🟨,
73', Szymanski S. ↓, Cisse D. ↑,
73', Tamari M. ↓, Blas L. ↑,
74', Vossah A. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
81', Kamanzi W. ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
81', Lepaul E. ↓, Embolo B. ↑,
90', Nordin A. ↓, Mukiele N. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rennes won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Rennes has had a series of away games.

Rennes is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Rennes: Frankowski P. (Injury) Jacquet J. (Shoulder Injury) Kamara G. (Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Casseres C. (Yellow Cards) Dominguez A. (Inactive) Donnum A. (Suspended) Emersonn (Injury) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rennes won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:30. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Rennes won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:15. (average 1.8:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Rennes: 3.09% Toulouse: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8:9	-1	10
14	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5

Last Results with these Odds

Rennes - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.07%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Rennes
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Auxerre - Rennes	0:3 ✺
13.02.26	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Lens - Rennes	3:1 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Monaco - Rennes	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLLL
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
21.02.26	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Angers - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Toulouse - Amiens	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Toulouse - Auxerre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.10.25	Toulouse - Rennes	2:2
03.05.25	Toulouse - Rennes	2:1
10.11.24	Rennes - Toulouse	0:2
13.04.24	Rennes - Toulouse	1:2
17.12.23	Toulouse - Rennes	0:0
12.02.23	Toulouse - Rennes	3:1
12.11.22	Rennes - Toulouse	2:1

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