Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Millot B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	Sport 5
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Toulouse		Paris FC

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2.02	3.35	3.9	Watch
	1.92	3.46	4.38
	2	3.34	3.93	Watch
	2	3.1	3.8
	2.08	3.43	4.11	Watch
	1.95	3.25	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.91)	3.32 ↓ (3.4)	4.05 ↓ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
47.8%

Draw
28.7%

Paris FC
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

27.8%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

27.6%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.7%	23.1%	19.2%

Toulouse - Paris FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 15 - 57.7%). Paris FC will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 38.7% – 76.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Paris FC (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Toulouse (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Toulouse (3.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Paris FC (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 12. Kamanzi W. 23. Casseres C. 18. Demba P. 24. Methalie D. 11. Hidalgo S. 10. Gboho Y. 20. Emersonn	35. Trapp K. (G) 5. Mbow M. 42. Coppola D. 6. Otavio 7. Gory A. 33. Lees-Melou P. 18. Munetsi M. 19. Sangui N. 10. Kebbal I. (C) 93. Ikone J. 36. Immobile C.
Substitutes
44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 42. Garondo T. 16. Haug K. (G) 35. Koumbassa S. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.	28. De Smet T. 9. Geubbels W. 24. Koleosho L. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 11. Krasso J. 20. Lopez J. 4. Marchetti V. 16. Nkambadio O. (G) 27. Simon M.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Gilli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', Methalie D. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Munetsi M. ⚽, Gory A. (A),
44', Coppola D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Kebbal I. 🟨,
61', Kamanzi W. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
64', Emersonn ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
67', Gory A. ↓, De Smet T. ↑,
67', Ikone J. ↓, Koleosho L. ↑,
67', Munetsi M. ↓, Marchetti V. ↑,
68', Trapp K. 🟨,
77', Otavio 🟨,
81', Immobile C. ↓, Krasso J. ↑,
85', Kebbal I. ↓, Simon M. ↑,
86', Demba P. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Vignolo J. ⚽, Hidalgo S. (A),
90+7', Simon M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 15).

In recent matches, Toulouse has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paris FC has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Toulouse is the team to beat.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Dominguez A. (Inactive) Donnum A. (Suspended) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (Knee Injury) McKenzie M. (Yellow Cards) Messali R. (Injury)

There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S. (Injury) Camara A. (Yellow Cards) Chergui S. (Injury) Gueye L. (Injury) Hamel P. (Calf Injury) Lopez M. (Yellow Cards) Matondo R. (Yellow Cards) Riou R. (Injury) Traore H. (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Paris FC: 1.59% Toulouse: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8:3	5	11
14	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Angers - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Toulouse - Amiens	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Toulouse - Auxerre	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Brest - Toulouse	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWTW
- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Paris FC - Lens	0:5 ✺
08.02.26	Auxerre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Paris FC - Angers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Paris FC - Toulouse	0:3
French Ligue 2
02.04.22	Toulouse - Paris FC	2:1
23.10.21	Paris FC - Toulouse	2:2
01.05.21	Paris FC - Toulouse	3:1
05.01.21	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:0

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