Match Info

Cymru South - Round 16

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday


	Trefelin		Baglan Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.21	5.3	11
	1.26	6.35	12.31
	1.21	6.06	12.35	Watch
	1.3	4.4	8
	1.15	5.95	13.5
	1.18	5.5	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.31)	5.59 ↑ (5.13)	11.53 ↑ (8.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefelin
75.6%

Draw
16.5%

Baglan Dragons
8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

18.1%

10.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.3%

17.1%

10.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefelin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Trefelin - Baglan Dragons Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Trefelin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +2 - Baglan Dragons (2.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Trefelin (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Trefelin will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Trefelin (votes: 3 - 60%). Baglan Dragons (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Bowen L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, Georgievsky K. ⚽,
79', 3 - 0, Jones J. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 12).

Trefelin has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Baglan Dragons's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Trefelin is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trefelin won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Trefelin won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	10	5	1	4	11:11	0	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
13.02.26	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Ammanford - Trefelin	0:4 ✺
16.01.26	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Trefelin - Trethomas Bluebirds	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Afan Lido - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWWWW
- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
14.02.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Baglan Dragons - Aberystwyth Town	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Ynyshir Albions - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Llantwit Major - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
06.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	1:1
26.12.24	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	1:2
26.08.24	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	2:0
24.02.24	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	1:1
25.11.23	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	4:1

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