Match Info

Cymru South - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Baglan Dragons		Aberystwyth Town

	1	X	2
	3.90	3.55	1.72
	3.96	3.75	1.75
	4.05	3.75	1.8	Watch
	3.90	3.70	1.72
	3.91	3.86	1.80
	4.00	3.70	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (3.79)	3.72 ↑ (3.65)	1.76 (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
23.2%

Draw
24.6%

Aberystwyth Town
52.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.9%

24.8%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

24.3%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Aberystwyth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Baglan Dragons - Aberystwyth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 5th and 3rd).

In recent outings, Baglan Dragons has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Aberystwyth is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Aberystwyth carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Baglan Dragons has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:3 (averaging 0.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Baglan Dragons against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22:9	13	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12:12	0	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.26	Baglan Dragons - Pontypridd United	1:1 ✺
02.10.26	Llanelli - Baglan Dragons	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWLLW
- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.26	Aberystwyth Town - Caerau Ely	0:1 ✺
03.10.26	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	1:3 ✺
25.09.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pure Swansea	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
31.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Llanelli	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
07.02.26	Baglan Dragons - Aberystwyth Town	0:1
09.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Baglan Dragons	2:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
30.10.26	Baglan Dragons - Treowen Stars	✺
- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru South
31.10.26	Aberystwyth Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	✺

Baglan Dragons - Aberystwyth Town