Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 14

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ynys Park (Cwmafan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Wright R. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Wales	19:45	Cymru Football TV


	Trefelin		Flint Town United

	1	X	2
	3.30	3.40	1.88
	3.00	3.25	2.08
	3.41	3.70	2.02
	3.3	3.76	2.02	Watch
	3.35	3.60	1.99
	3.34	3.75	1.99
	3.50	3.60	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.79)	3.58 ↓ (3.74)	1.98 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefelin
27.8%

Draw
25.7%

Flint Town United
46.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.5%

25%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

25.2%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefelin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Trefelin's form might have worsened.

Flint Town United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Trefelin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flint Town United than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Trefelin - Flint Town United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Coughlan S. (G) 20. Aman B. 10. Brock T. 4. Caramella-Gerrard L. 7. Georgievsky K. 3. Horgan-Evans D. 14. Jones J. 19. Jones J. 26. Owen K. 2. Thomas M. 11. Ware L.	1. Flint J. (G) 3. Burke M. 2. Dean H. 8. Hughes B. 19. Jonas L. 4. McGahey H. 7. Mendes L. 23. Modi I. 5. Owen H. 9. Owolabi T. 6. Thorn J.
Substitutes
21. Agar O. 35. Davies O. 18. Degelman O. 5. MacDonald S. 17. Phillips L. 16. Piper R. 12. Saunders C.	13. Dempsey Z. (G) 16. Kane N. 39. Marquez Y. 18. Morrison L. 14. Wilson C.
Coaches
Hill A.	Holmes D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Modi I. 🟨,
36', Owen H. 🟨,
38', Jonas L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Modi I. ↓, Hayder A. ↑,
46', Brock T. ↓, Piper R. ↑,
59', Coughlan S. 🟥,
59', Ware L. ↓, Agar O. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Owolabi T. (Penalty Awarded),
67', 0 - 2, Owolabi T. ⚽,
67', Thorn J. ↓, Kane N. ↑,
69', Georgievsky K. ↓, MacDonald S. ↑,
72', 🟨,
79', Owolabi T. ↓, Morrison L. ↑,
80', Jones J. ↓, Degelman O. ↑,
80', Aman B. ↓, Saunders C. ↑,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 15th in the Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 14th in the Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Flint Town could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Flint Town is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Flint	14	3	2	9	14:25	-11	11
15	Trefelin	14	1	3	10	8:33	-25	6

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Trefelin: 0.81%

Last Results with these Odds

Flint Town United - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.53%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefelin BGC
Welsh FA Cup
17.10.26	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	4:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
09.10.26	Cardiff Metropolitan - Trefelin	1:3 ✺
03.10.26	Airbus UK Broughton - Trefelin	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	Trefelin - The New Saints	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WWLLT
- Flint Town United
Welsh Cymru Premier
10.10.26	Flint Town United - Colwyn Bay	0:1 ✺
03.10.26	Haverfordwest County - Flint Town United	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Flint Town United - Ammanford	3:0 ✺
18.09.26	Airbus UK Broughton - Flint Town United	4:1 ✺
15.09.26	The New Saints - Flint Town United	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWLL

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