Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes)

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 6
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Sports 1 MAX, Digiturk
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, ON Sport, VTVcab
International	OneFootball TV


	Troyes		Lens

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.90	1.83	Watch
	3.75	3.75	1.90
	3.90	3.80	1.81
	3.97	3.95	1.92
	3.76	4.05	1.84	Watch
	3.90	3.90	1.89
	4.09	3.99	1.92	Watch
	3.85	3.95	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 (3.87)	3.91 ↓ (3.98)	1.87 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
24.6%

Draw
24.4%

Lens
51%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.4%

23.7%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

23.6%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.1%	92.9%

Troyes - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: Lens will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lens will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 17th in the Relegation - Ligue 2 and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 0.

Recent results have been tough for Troyes (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lens has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Troyes could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Lens carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Troyes: Kone Y. (Knee Injury) Ouzenadji A. (Knee Injury) Titi Y. (Leg Injury).

Confirmed absences for Lens: Chavez J. (Thigh Injury) Gradit J. (Muscle Injury) Nawrocki M. (Knee Injury) Sima A. (Muscle Injury) Udol M. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Troyes: Boura I. (Hip Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Troyes has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:24 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Troyes against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:14 goals (averaging 1.4:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Lens	6	2	1	3	11:10	1	7
17	Troyes	6	1	1	4	4:13	-9	4

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 1.39% Troyes: 0.16%

Last Results with these Odds

Troyes - the odds 3.87 are the expected chance of winning is 24.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Lens - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.88%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 1
11.10.26	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Angers - Troyes	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lille - Troyes	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Troyes - Strasbourg	2:6 ✺
29.08.26	Lorient - Troyes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLLW
- RC Lens
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	Lens - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
09.10.26	Lens - Lyon	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Monaco - Lens	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Le Mans - Lens	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.09.26	Slavia Prague - Lens	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
04.02.26	Troyes - Lens	2:4
French Ligue 1
28.01.23	Troyes - Lens	1:1
09.09.22	Lens - Troyes	1:0
14.05.22	Troyes - Lens	1:3
05.11.21	Lens - Troyes	4:0
French Ligue 2
04.02.20	Lens - Troyes	1:0
24.08.19	Troyes - Lens	2:0

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