Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	13:15	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 4, TOD
Austria	17:15	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	17:15	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	18:15	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Cambodia	23:15	MyTV
Canada	12:15	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	00:15	Migu
Croatia	17:15	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	17:15	Viaplay
Finland	18:15	Viaplay
France	17:15	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	17:15	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	00:15	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	23:15	Vidio
Israel	18:15	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	17:15	Ligue 1+
Japan	01:15	DAZN Japan
Mexico	10:15	FOX One
Netherlands	17:15	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	17:15	MaxTV GO
Norway	17:15	Viaplay
Peru	11:15	Disney+
Romania	18:15	Voyo
Serbia	17:15	Arena Sport 5
Slovenia	17:15	Arena Sport 4
South Korea	01:15	Coupang Play
Spain	17:15	DAZN Espana
Sweden	17:15	Viaplay
Switzerland	17:15	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	19:15	beIN Connect
Ukraine	18:15	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	16:15	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	13:15	Disney+
Usa	12:15	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	12:15	Disney+
Vietnam	23:15	ON Plus, VTVcab
International	16:15	OneFootball TV


	Toulouse		Troyes

	1	X	2
	1.60	4.00	5.75	Watch
	1.58	4.33	5.00
	1.49	4.40	5.75	Watch
	1.63	4.30	5.67
	1.51	4.49	5.9	Watch
	1.61	4.20	5.50
	1.61	4.03	5.79	Watch
	1.60	4.30	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.7)	4.26 ↑ (4.05)	5.55 ↑ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
60.4%

Draw
22.4%

Troyes
17.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.6%

23.3%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

22.5%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.4%	8.1%	13.5%

Toulouse - Troyes Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Toulouse (1.60) (votes: 94%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Toulouse will win (29 of 37 users predict this - 78.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.12% – 91.64%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toulouse will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Restes G. (G) 22. Messali R. 3. McKenzie M. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 12. Tape C. 15. Donnum A. 23. Casseres C. 14. Sigur N. 8. Jorgensen T. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 20. Tengstedt C.	40. Konate H. (G) 2. Maronnier L. 6. Monfray A. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 5. Gozzi P. 17. Mille A. 29. Karim D. 8. Diop M. 10. Ifnaoui M. 20. Ripart R. 23. Nkada T.
Substitutes
18. Amougou M. 37. Azizi I. 1. Collin T. (G) 94. Diallo I. 9. Hidalgo S. 5. Koumbassa S. 31. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J. 6. Vossah A.	33. Beach P. (G) 7. Diawara K. 31. Donkor N. 11. Gomis I. 9. Le Douaron J. 26. Phliponeau A. 22. Picard H. 34. Simakha L. 36. Soukouna I.
Coaches
Askou J.	Dumont S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Donnum A. 🟨,
25', Messali R. 🟨,
36', Diaz Jr. M. 🟨,
39', Casseres C. 🟨,
40', Nkada T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Messali R. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
67', Donnum A. ↓, Azizi I. ↑,
73', Ripart R. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
73', Nkada T. ↓, Diawara K. ↑,
83', Sigur N. 🟨,
84', Jorgensen T. ↓, Schmidt N. ↑,
84', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
88', Askou J. 🟨,
89', Vossah A. 🟨,
90', Diop M. ↓, Gomis I. ↑,
90+3', McKenzie M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 12th and 17th in the Relegation - Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3.

Toulouse has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Troyes has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Toulouse could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Toulouse carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:4 (averaging 1.7:0.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toulouse against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 8:3 goals (averaging 1.6:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	12:11	1	10
17	Troyes	8	1	2	5	5:16	-11	5

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.5% Troyes: 0.14%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
16.10.26	Le Mans - Toulouse	0:3 ✺
10.10.26	Monaco - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Toulouse - Pau	2:3
French Ligue 1
19.09.26	Toulouse - Le Havre	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Lorient - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTLWT
- Troyes AC
French Ligue 1
17.10.26	Troyes - Lens	1:3 ✺
11.10.26	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Angers - Troyes	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lille - Troyes	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Troyes - Strasbourg	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
01.02.23	Toulouse - Troyes	4:1
14.08.22	Troyes - Toulouse	0:3
French Ligue 2
06.02.21	Troyes - Toulouse	1:1
03.10.20	Toulouse - Troyes	0:0
French Ligue 1
27.01.18	Toulouse - Troyes	1:0
09.09.17	Troyes - Toulouse	0:0
07.05.16	Toulouse - Troyes	1:0

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