Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 26

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Cyprus	Nova Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
France	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	Nova Sports
Hungary	Match 4
Italy	Sky Sport Football, Sky Sport
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2, Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	BT Sport
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Troyes		Monaco

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.75	1.44	Watch
	6.25	4.6	1.47
	6.1	4.75	1.47
	6.2	4.7	1.46
	6.81	4.85	1.49
	6.5	4.6	1.44
	6.65	4.8	1.44	Watch
	6.6	4.8	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.45 ↑ (6.13)	4.73 ↑ (4.38)	1.46 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
14.8%

Draw
20.1%

Monaco
65.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.4%

21.6%

63%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

21.4%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.5%	2.8%	88.7%

Troyes - Monaco Predictions

Users Predictions: Monaco will win (94 of 106 users predict this - 88.68%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.65% – 94.71%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Group Stage)).

Troyes has the most likely position - 19 (38.61%), has project points - 30, has currently - 19, has a good chance of relegated (84%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Monaco has the most likely position - 3 (28.01%), has project points - 73, has currently - 50, has not chance of relegated, has a good chance of qualify for ucl (52%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 54, importance 54, match rating 54. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Troyes won 1.

Troyes has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Monaco is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Troyes could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Monaco is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Monaco to win the game is with odds 1.48.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Troyes won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Troyes won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 1
26.02.23	Ajaccio - Troyes	2:1 ✺
19.02.23	Troyes - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
12.02.23	Reims - Troyes	4:0 ✺
04.02.23	Troyes - Lyon	1:3 ✺
01.02.23	Toulouse - Troyes	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
26.02.23	Monaco - Nice	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.02.23	Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen	2:4 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
19.02.23	Brest - Monaco	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Monaco	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.02.23	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
31.08.22	Monaco - Troyes	2:4
10.04.22	Monaco - Troyes	2:1
29.08.21	Troyes - Monaco	1:2
19.05.18	Troyes - Monaco	0:3
09.12.17	Monaco - Troyes	3:2
20.02.16	Monaco - Troyes	3:1
19.12.15	Troyes - Monaco	0:0

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