Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 23 February 2023, Thursday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1, V Sport
Germany	RTL
Italy	Sky Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Monaco		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	3
	2.2	3.7	2.95
	2.23	3.75	3.2
	2.22	3.72	3.24
	2.2	3.6	3.1
	2.16	3.7	3.15
	2.25	3.7	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.24)	3.68 ↑ (3.66)	3.11 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
43.2%

Draw
26%

Bayer Leverkusen
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

26.2%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

25.5%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.6%	11.4%	17%

Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 88 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 63 - 71.6%). Bayer will win (votes: 15 - 17%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 62.2% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Monaco was already of knockout phase, has a good chance of round of 16 (77%), has a chance of qtrs (41%), has a chance of semis (21%), has a small chance of final (9%), has a very small chance of win league (4%), has currently - 10, has not chance of 1st, was already of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.

Bayer was already of knockout phase, has a chance of round of 16 (23%), has a small chance of qtrs (13%), has a small chance of semis (7%), has a very small chance of final (3%), has a very small chance of win league (1%), has currently - , has not chance of 1st, has not chance of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.

This event has big quality 73, very big importance 90, big match rating 82. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Monaco in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Bayer is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Monaco will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Monaco: Aguilar R. (Thigh Injury) Martins G. (Thigh Injury) Volland K. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Aranguiz C. (Calf Injury) Lunev A. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Monaco: Maripan G. (Knee Injury) Vanderson (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Diaby M. (Muscle Injury)

Our prediction for today's Monaco to win the game is with odds 2.24.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monaco won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Monaco won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
19.02.23	Brest - Monaco	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Monaco	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.02.23	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	3:1 ✺
05.02.23	Clermont - Monaco	0:2 ✺
01.02.23	Monaco - Auxerre	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWWWW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
19.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Monaco	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
11.02.23	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
03.02.23	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
16.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Monaco	2:3
UEFA Champions League
07.12.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Monaco	3:0
27.09.16	Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
26.11.14	Bayer Leverkusen - Monaco	0:1
16.09.14	Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0

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