Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 37

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday


	Truro City		Welling United

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.75	5.25
	1.67	3.6	4.9
	1.65	3.68	5.29
	1.67	3.62	5.27
	1.63	3.64	5.14
	1.67	3.6	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.44)	3.65 ↓ (4.26)	5.13 ↓ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Truro City
56.6%

Draw
25.3%

Welling United
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.1%

21.7%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

20.4%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Truro City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Truro City's form might have worsened.

Welling United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Truro City than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Truro City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Truro City - Welling United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Riley-Lowe C. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Moore D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Winfield D. 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Harvey T. ⚽,
85', 3 - 1, Harvey T. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 2, Di Trolio R. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Truro won 2.

Truro in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Welling is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Welling could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Truro is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Truro to win the game is with odds 1.56.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Truro won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 22:24 (average 2.2:2.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Truro won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:10 (average 2.2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Truro City
English National League South
04.03.25	Truro City - Boreham Wood	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Chesham United - Truro City	1:4 ✺
25.02.25	Truro City - Weymouth	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Truro City - Slough Town	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Tonbridge Angels - Truro City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWTWW
- Welling United
English National League South
01.03.25	Welling United - Slough Town	2:2 ✺
25.02.25	Tonbridge Angels - Welling United	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Chippenham Town - Welling United	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Welling United - Dorking Wanderers	0:1 ✺
11.02.25	Enfield Town - Welling United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
09.11.24	Welling United - Truro City	1:2
27.02.24	Welling United - Truro City	3:2
05.08.23	Truro City - Welling United	5:2
05.01.19	Welling United - Truro City	5:3
18.08.18	Truro City - Welling United	2:2
09.12.17	Welling United - Truro City	2:2
05.08.17	Truro City - Welling United	3:2

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