Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EREDIVISIE - ROUND 3

Date: 27 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: De Grolsch Veste (Enschede)

Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Twente		Vitesse

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.75	9	Watch
	1.36	5.25	8
	1.34	5.35	8.2	Watch
	1.36	5	8
	1.36	5.36	9.09
	1.35	4.8	8	Watch
	1.35	5.2	8.3	Watch
	1.36	5.2	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.65)	5.11 ↑ (4.49)	8.32 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Twente
70%

Draw
18.6%

Vitesse
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

21%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

20.5%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Twente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Twente's performance.

Vitesse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitesse might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Twente than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Twente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitesse could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	4%	8%

Twente - Vitesse Predictions

Users Predictions: Twente will win (22 of 25 users predict this - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.26% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Unnerstall L. (G) 12. Sampsted A. 2. Hilgers M. 3. Propper R. (C) 8. Regeer Y. 4. Kjolo M. 23. Sadilek M. 11. Rots D. 14. Steijn S. 18. Vlap M. 9. van Wolfswinkel R.	1. Room E. (G) 2. Arcus C. 29. Isimat-Mirin N. 15. Hendriks R. 5. Mica Pinto 20. Meulensteen M. 17. Kozlowski K. 42. Manhoef M. 8. van Ginkel M. (C) 25. de Regt G. 11. Fofana F.
Substitutes
41. Besselink G. 6. Eiting C. 16. El Maach I. (G) 24. Mesbahi J. 39. Rots M. 19. Taha Y. 22. Tyton P. (G) 27. Ugalde M. 7. van Bergen M. 17. Van Hoorenbeeck A.	44. Altena J. 55. Bramel T. (G) 13. Cornelisse E. 56. Egbring M. 10. Hamulic S. 26. Jonathans M. 6. Oroz D. 31. Schubert M. (G) 43. Van Zwam G.
Coaches
Oosting J.	Cocu P.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Twente won 3.

Recent matches Twente is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Vitesse is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Twente is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Twente: Unuvar N. (Injury)

There will not play in Vitesse: Buitink T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Twente: Brenet J. (Injury) Bruns M. (Injury) Smal G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Vitesse: Boutrah A. (Leg Injury) Propper D. (Knee Injury)

Last 21 head-to-head matches Twente won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 31-33.

Including matches at home between the teams Twente won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
24.09.23	Waalwijk - Twente	1:0 ✺
17.09.23	Twente - Ajax	3:1 ✺
03.09.23	Volendam - Twente	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Twente - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
24.08.23	Fenerbahçe - Twente	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWLL
- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eredivisie
24.09.23	Sparta Rotterdam - Vitesse	1:0 ✺
16.09.23	Vitesse - Waalwijk	0:2 ✺
03.09.23	Vitesse - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
19.08.23	Vitesse - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
11.08.23	Volendam - Vitesse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
25.01.23	Vitesse - Twente	2:2
01.10.22	Twente - Vitesse	3:0
05.02.22	Twente - Vitesse	3:0
19.09.21	Vitesse - Twente	1:4
03.04.21	Twente - Vitesse	1:2
14.02.21	Vitesse - Twente	0:2
07.03.20	Vitesse - Twente	1:0

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