Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Caliente (Tijuana)

Referee: Garcia O. M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Tijuana		Toluca

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.6	2.1	Watch
	2.98	3.7	2.12	Watch
	3.18	3.95	2.17
	3.40	3.83	1.99	Watch
	3.42	3.65	2.11	Watch
	3.3	3.55	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (3.18)	3.71 ↑ (3.55)	2.09 (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tijuana
29.2%

Draw
25.5%

Toluca
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

26.2%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

26.5%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Tijuana - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Tijuana will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tijuana (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Tijuana (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tijuana (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Rodriguez A. (G) 3. Inzunza R. 12. Porozo J. 6. Gomez A. 16. Vega A. 34. Boya F. 8. Tona I. 17. Arciga R. 10. Castaneda K. 19. Mora G. 21. El Ghezouani M.	1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 14. Ruiz M. 5. Romero F. 8. Castro N. 10. Angulo J. 9. Vega A. 31. Morales R.
Substitutes
4. Bilbao U. 27. Blanco D. 20. Bullaude E. 15. Corona J. 5. Escamilla K. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 18. Mejia A. 9. Nicholson S. 11. Preciado A. 7. Vitinho	35. Alvarez A. 24. Arce F. 207. Arroyo J. 3. Briseno A. 4. Bruno Mendez 22. Garcia L. (G) 16. Herrera H. 17. Isais M. 19. Simon S. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Abreu S.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Barbosa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', El Ghezouani M. ↓, Nicholson S. ↑,
65', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
65', Angulo J. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
74', Castaneda K. ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
76', Inzunza R. 🟨,
81', Tona I. 🟨,
85', Mora G. ↓, Blanco D. ↑,
87', Morales R. ↓, Bruno Mendez ↑,
90', Castro N. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 1.

In recent matches, Tijuana has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toluca is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Toluca could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Toluca: Luan (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:39. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tijuana won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
17.10.25	Puebla - Tijuana	4:3 ✺
05.10.25	Tijuana - Monterrey	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Tijuana - Cruz Azul	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Santos Laguna - Tijuana	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Tijuana - Club León	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LTWLW
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
18.10.25	Toluca - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Club León - Toluca	2:4 ✺
Campeones Cup
01.10.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca	2:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
27.09.25	Toluca - Mazatlan	3:1 ✺
24.09.25	Toluca - Monterrey	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
10.01.25	Tijuana - Toluca	2:4
14.09.24	Toluca - Tijuana	4:0
25.02.24	Toluca - Tijuana	2:0
15.09.23	Tijuana - Toluca	2:1
17.03.23	Tijuana - Toluca	3:3
07.08.22	Toluca - Tijuana	3:1
01.03.22	Toluca - Tijuana	1:2

Upcoming Matches