Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 13 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio 15 de Abril (Santa Fe)

Referee: Herrera Y. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Unión Santa Fe		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.5	6.5	Watch
	1.49	4	6.75
	1.5	4	6.5	Watch
	1.48	4.05	7.89
	1.5	3.95	7.56
	1.44	3.9	7	Watch
	1.47	4.05	7.5	Watch
	1.5	4	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.48)	3.93 ↑ (3.89)	7.03 ↓ (7.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Santa Fe
63%

Draw
23.7%

Mushuc Runa
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

24.1%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

22%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión Santa Fe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Unión Santa Fe - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Unión will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mushuc Runa (2.51) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Mushuc Runa (5.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mushuc Runa will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Cardozo T. (G) 35. Vargas L. 34. Pardo F. 13. Fascendini V. 32. Paz N. 11. Del Blanco M. 28. Pitton M. 24. Profini R. 7. Fragapane F. 18. Gamba L. 21. Colazo A.	25. Formento R. (G) 4. Haquin L. 29. Quintero D. 2. Bentaberry B. 31. Mina G. 32. Orejuela C. 14. Tapiero S. 88. Arce L. 17. Penilla C. 41. Caicedo E. 11. Miranda B.
Substitutes
19. Angulo J. 23. Arturia G. 29. Diaz D. 31. Estigarribia M. 22. Gerometta F. 43. Giaccone E. 8. Ham E. 33. Lavezzi T. 26. Luduena J. 45. Ratotti F. 1. Tagliamonte M. (G) 10. Verde L.	22. Alonso M. 18. Bryan Angulo 7. Castro S. 21. Cristobal R. 19. Gracia A. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 42. Pabon W. (G) 3. Parrales J. 26. Peralta K. 27. Simisterra R. 1. Tapia C. (G)
Coaches
Vazzoler N.	Almeida E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', Mina G. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Caicedo E. ⚽, Orejuela C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fragapane F. ↓, Verde L. ↑,
53', Tapiero S. 🟨,
63', Orejuela C. 🟨,
66', Miranda B. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
71', Orejuela C. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
71', Colazo A. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
72', Arce L. 🟨,
74', Fascendini V. 🟨,
77', Paz N. ↓, Estigarribia M. ↑,
86', Gamba L. ↓, Lavezzi T. ↑,
87', Vargas L. ↓, Gerometta F. ↑,
90', Caicedo E. ↓, Gracia A. ↑,
90+2', Penilla C. 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Unión has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mushuc Runa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mushuc Runa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Unión is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Unión won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Santa Fe
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Belgrano	1:1 ✺
28.04.25	Barracas Central - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Unión Santa Fe	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLLT
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.05.25	Manta - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará	4:3 ✺
27.04.25	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Unión Santa Fe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Unión Santa Fe	3:0

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