Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 7
Brazil	SportyNet
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, beIN Sports MAX 8
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	ZEE5
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	FOX One
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 3
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+
International	OneFootball TV


	Union Berlin		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.2	1.6	Watch
	5.00	4.40	1.60
	5.15	4.25	1.58
	5.2	4.55	1.63
	5.3	4.39	1.63	Watch
	4.9	4.35	1.59
	5.34	4.63	1.63	Watch
	5	4.4	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↑ (4.55)	4.4 ↑ (4.34)	1.61 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
18.5%

Draw
21.8%

Borussia Dortmund
59.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.9%

21.9%

57.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

21.7%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	0%	92.3%

Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Union Berlin (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.07% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 1 - 25%). Borussia D (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 16th in the Bundesliga (Relegation) and 2nd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1.

In recent outings, Union Berlin has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Borussia D shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Borussia D may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Borussia D is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Union Berlin has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:45 (averaging 1.1:2.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Union Berlin against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 10:14 goals (averaging 1.3:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	11:4	7	13
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	5:17	-12	4

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 9.27% Union Berlin: 0.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	Union Berlin - Elversberg	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.09.26	Rijeka - Union Berlin	0:1
German Bundesliga
18.09.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	7:0 ✺
11.09.26	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLLL
- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
14.10.26	Bodø Glimt - Borussia Dortmund	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
09.10.26	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:3
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0
22.02.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	6:0
05.10.24	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	2:1
02.03.24	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
07.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	4:2
08.04.23	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	2:1

Upcoming Matches