Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 17

Date: 6 July 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	1.51	5	4.5	Watch
	1.40	4.20	6.00
	1.52	4.35	4.95	Watch
	1.55	4.35	6.02
	1.53	4.37	5.54	Watch
	1.53	3.4	5.95
	1.54	3.96	6.01	Watch
	1.51	4.2	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.53)	4.23 ↑ (3.93)	5.48 ↑ (5.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
61.2%

Draw
21.9%

Mushuc Runa
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

23.2%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

22.5%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	9.5%	0%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.13) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Universidad Católica del Ecuador will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Universidad Católica del Ecuador will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lara J. (G) 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. (C) 4. Jhon Chancellor 6. Palacios D. 5. Cacciabue J. 15. Moreno L. 23. Rodriguez A. 28. Diaz M. 32. Alonso M. 26. Yanez S.	25. Formento R. (C) 26. Peralta K. 2. Flor F. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 50. Cusme J. 99. Angulo C. 5. Davila E. 23. Lemos L. 7. Minda T. 30. Ibarra R. 9. Carrillo R.
Substitutes
20. Chala J. 1. Cueva L. (G) 9. Londono A. 37. Medina C. 24. Nazareno D. 18. Palacios B. 22. Romo R. (G) 19. Sevillano M. 17. Troya R. 44. Valencia E.	14. Caicedo E. 12. Carabali F. 33. Hernandez J. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 8. Zambrano A.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Palacios D. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Angulo C. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Londono A. ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Carrillo R. ⚽, Davila E. (A),
57', Yanez S. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
62', Moreno L. ↓, Chala J. ↑,
63', Palacios D. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
74', Ibarra R. ↓, Zambrano A. ↑,
80', 0 - 3, Zambrano A. ⚽, Minda T. (A),
85', 1 - 3, Diaz M. ⚽, Londono A. (A),
88', 2 - 3, Londono A. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
89', Minda T. ↓, Carabali F. ↑,
89', Carrillo R. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
89', Angulo C. ↓, Merino D. ↑,
90+5', Palacios B. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 1.

In recent matches, Uni Católica has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mushuc Runa's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Uni Católica is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 2.2:1.2).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
31.05.26	Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
28.05.26	El Nacional - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:4 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Delfín	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Super Cup
13.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWTL
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Copa
03.06.26	Gualaceo - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
31.05.26	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	2:2 ✺
17.05.26	Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
11.05.26	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:0
05.07.25	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1
09.03.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	1:1
30.08.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	5:1
22.05.24	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1
25.11.23	Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:2
09.06.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	3:2

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