Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 14

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Leones del Norte		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.7	Watch
	2.52	2.98	2.82	Watch
	2.81	3.05	2.86
	2.57	2.91	3.01	Watch
	2.5	2.75	2.7
	2.64	2.97	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (3.09)	2.94 ↑ (2.9)	2.82 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
35.7%

Draw
31.4%

Mushuc Runa
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

32.2%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

31.2%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leones del Norte's performance.

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones del Norte that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mushuc Runa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Leones del Norte will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leones del Norte: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones del Norte (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Nazareno L. (G) 32. Aguas A. 23. Monserrat N. 25. Kreiman B. 4. Arroyo R. 5. Coppo T. 8. Velez C. 6. Griffa E. 34. Portocarrero S. 40. Anangono J. (C) 99. Solano C.	25. Formento R. (G) 26. Peralta K. 12. Carabali F. 2. Flor F. 6. Negro B. (C) 99. Angulo C. 5. Davila E. 18. Gonzalez J. 77. Velasco K. 10. Mina F. 81. Castelli F.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. L. (G) 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 27. Caicedo Nestor 11. Caramuto M. 33. Chacon A. 16. De La Cruz M. 10. Mansilla A. 44. Mina K. 70. Pazmino D. 19. Pepinos E. 3. Vargas F.	14. Caicedo E. 19. Carcelen J. 9. Carrillo R. 15. Cela A. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 7. Minda T. 32. Orejuela C. 42. Pabon W. (G) 17. Pico O. 8. Zambrano A.
Coaches
Mendez E.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', Monserrat N. 🟨,
12', Peralta K. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Griffa E. ⚽, Arroyo R. (A),
39', Negro B. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
40', 1 - 1, Mina F. ⚽, Gonzalez J. (A),
45+9', 2 - 1, Anangono J. (Penalty Awarded),
45+12', Aguas A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Castelli F. ↓, Carrillo R. ↑,
62', Mina F. ↓, Minda T. ↑,
63', Griffa E. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
64', Solano C. ↓, Caicedo Nestor ↑,
74', Velez C. ↓, Pepinos E. ↑,
74', Peralta K. ↓, Pico O. ↑,
74', Velasco K. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
85', Anangono J. ↓, Cabeza J. ↑,
85', Arroyo R. ↓, Vargas F. ↑,
88', Angulo C. 🟥,
90+2', 3 - 1, Pazmino D. ⚽, Caicedo Nestor (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Leones del Norte may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leones del Norte won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Leones del Norte won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.05.26	Orense - Leones del Norte	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Leones del Norte - Emelec	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Leones del Norte - Manta	3:0 ✺
17.04.26	Leones del Norte - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLWL
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.05.26	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	4:1 ✺
22.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Copa
21.07.24	Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa	0:1 penalties

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