Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 15

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Moreira E. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Mushuc Runa		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.7	3.4	4.2
	1.6	3.6	5.3	Watch
	1.65	3.72	5.82
	1.64	3.65	5.56	Watch
	1.6	3.3	5
	1.65	3.59	5.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.7)	3.55 ↑ (3.5)	5.22 ↑ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
56.5%

Draw
25.9%

Guayaquil City
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

26.7%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

26%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Guayaquil City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Guayaquil City will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guayaquil City: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 26. Peralta K. 12. Carabali F. 2. Flor F. 33. Hernandez J. 23. Lemos L. 5. Davila E. 32. Orejuela C. 10. Mina F. 77. Velasco K. 9. Carrillo R.	1. Napa G. (G) 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. (C) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 14. Arroyo D. 20. Laurino S. 70. Mancilla P. 80. Gonzalez P. 10. Diaz D. 11. Mero E.
Substitutes
14. Caicedo E. 19. Carcelen J. 15. Cela A. 18. Gonzalez J. 30. Ibarra R. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 7. Minda T. 6. Negro B. 42. Pabon W. (G) 17. Pico O. 8. Zambrano A.	8. Humanante J. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.
Coaches
Velez P.	Gavilanez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', Mina F. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
44', Ibarra R. 🟨,
44', Diaz D. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 0, Carrillo R. ⚽, Davila E. (A),
45+7', 2 - 0, Velasco K. ⚽, Davila E. (A),
45+9', 2 - 1, Diaz D. ⚽, Mero E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Mancilla P. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
59', Davila E. 🟨,
68', Laurino S. 🟨,
72', 2 - 2, Diaz D. ⚽,
77', Orejuela C. ↓, Minda T. ↑,
77', Davila E. ↓, Cela A. ↑,
79', Napa G. 🟨,
88', Rodriguez Y. ↓, Ladines Calvache E. P. ↑,
88', Gonzalez P. ↓, Naula A. ↑,
88', Arroyo D. ↓, Sambonino K. ↑,
90', Lemos L. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
90+12', Mero E. ↓, Palma M. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mushuc Runa is the team to beat.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:32. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.05.26	Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
11.05.26	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	4:1 ✺
22.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLWL
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.05.26	Guayaquil City - Orense	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
14.05.26	Astillero - Guayaquil City	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	Guayaquil City - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Guayaquil City - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Copa
06.08.25	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.23	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	3:0
18.03.23	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	4:1
19.09.22	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	4:1
30.04.22	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	2:0
21.11.21	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	1:0
29.05.21	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	0:0

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