Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 30

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Orense

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.33	6.50	Watch
	1.43	4.33	5.50
	1.45	4.40	6.50
	1.43	4.76	7.08
	1.46	4.5	6.41	Watch
	1.41	4.60	6.85
	1.46	4.36	6.55	Watch
	1.42	4.40	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.45)	4.46 ↑ (4.4)	6.42 ↓ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
64.7%

Draw
20.8%

Orense
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

21.2%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

20.4%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

The chances for Orense have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Uni Católica (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lara J. (G) 8. Clavijo E. 33. Canga L. 37. Medina C. 30. Mejia E. 10. Martinez F. (C) 5. Cacciabue J. 11. Evans J. 28. Diaz M. 32. Alonso M. 7. Fajardo J.	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. 24. Achilier G. (C) 5. Lorenzo A. 15. Caicedo B. 30. Burgoa V. 26. Molina N. 51. Ortiz C. 11. Herrera A. 23. Chuchuca W. 13. Mena A.
Substitutes
1. Cueva L. (G) 14. Mina J. 15. Moreno L. 24. Nazareno D. 18. Palacios B. 23. Rodriguez A. 19. Sevillano M. 17. Troya R. 44. Valencia E. 26. Yanez S.	74. Barrio C. 19. Bermudez M. 6. Callegari S. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 25. Jaramilo R. 57. Mairongo S. 3. Mina S. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 2. Quinonez B. 21. Rostagno G. 88. Valencia J.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Robles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Fajardo J. ⚽, Evans J. (A),
5', 2 - 0, Alonso M. ⚽, Clavijo E. (A),
14', 2 - 1, Burgoa V. ⚽, Velasco P. (A),
26', Mina S. 🟨,
43', Burgoa V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Evans J. ↓, Nazareno D. ↑,
71', Chuchuca W. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
73', Martinez F. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
78', Caicedo B. 🟨,
84', Mena A. ↓, Jaramilo R. ↑,
84', Ortiz C. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
84', Valencia J. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
86', Cacciabue J. ↓, Moreno L. ↑,
90+5', Clavijo E. ↓, Troya R. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Uni Católica is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 2.

Uni Católica is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Orense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Orense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Uni Católica is the clear favorite.

We predict that Uni Católica will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:10. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:2. (average 1.8:0.3).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 64.41%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Copa
10.09.26	Astillero - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
06.09.26	Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:1 ✺
03.09.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Manta	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWTTW
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.09.26	Orense - Guayaquil City	4:3 ✺
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Orense - Deportivo Macará	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	3:0 ✺
16.08.26	Orense - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2
29.11.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense	0:0
24.10.25	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1
08.08.25	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1
20.04.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense	2:0
13.09.24	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2
31.03.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense	5:1

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