Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 28

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Chile	17:30	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	16:30	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	16:30	Zapping Sports
Usa	17:30	SportsEngine Play


	Leones del Norte		Orense

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.25	4.33	Watch
	1.90	3.00	3.80
	1.91	3.30	4.00	Watch
	1.89	3.32	4.55
	1.86	3.31	4.47	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.45
	1.88	3.27	4.31	Watch
	1.81	3.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.23)	3.24 ↑ (3.15)	4.26 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
49.8%

Draw
28.5%

Orense
21.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.8%

29.6%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.6%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leones del Norte's performance.

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones del Norte that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Leones del Norte - Orense Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Leones del Norte will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Leones del Norte (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones del Norte (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Nazareno L. (G) 7. Luque M. 23. Monserrat N. 2. Moran J. 50. Caicedo M. 5. Coppo T. 6. Griffa E. 29. Madero P. 70. Pazmino D. 99. Solano C. 40. Anangono J. (C)	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. 24. Achilier G. (C) 45. Quinonez O. 15. Caicedo B. 14. Pluas E. 25. Jaramilo R. 11. Herrera A. 26. Molina N. 30. Burgoa V. 10. Parrales M.
Substitutes
32. Aguas A. 17. Amilivia T. 18. Arellano J. 22. Arroyo J. (G) 4. Arroyo R. 13. Cabeza J. 33. Chacon A. 14. Folleco A. 25. Kreiman B. 31. Padilla G. 19. Pepinos E. 3. Vargas F.	74. Barrio C. 19. Bermudez M. 23. Chuchuca W. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 57. Mairongo S. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 2. Quinonez B. 4. Quinonez S. 21. Rostagno G. 88. Valencia J.
Coaches
Cordoba M.	Robles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Monserrat N. 🟨,
41', Griffa E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pazmino D. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
59', Jaramilo R. ↓, Rostagno G. ↑,
59', Pluas E. ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Solano C. ⚽, Caicedo M. (A),
69', Caicedo M. ↓, Kreiman B. ↑,
78', Velasco P. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
78', Caicedo B. 🟨,
79', Griffa E. ↓, Pepinos E. ↑,
79', Solano C. ↓, Arroyo R. ↑,
83', Burgoa V. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
83', Parrales M. ↓, Chuchuca W. ↑,
90+1', Madero P. ↓, Cabeza J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Leones del Norte might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Leones del Norte won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Orense - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.66%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
21.08.26	Leones del Norte - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Manta - Leones del Norte	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	SD Aucas - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
02.08.26	Leones del Norte - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWLT
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.08.26	Orense - Deportivo Macará	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	3:0 ✺
16.08.26	Orense - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Delfín - Orense	1:1 ✺
31.07.26	Libertad Loja - Orense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.05.26	Orense - Leones del Norte	2:0
Ecuadorian Copa
21.08.25	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0

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