Match Info

Liga FUTVE - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)


	Universidad Central		Carabobo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.87	3.10	2.20
	2.75	3	2.45
	3	3.05	2.63
	3.14	3.21	2.3	Watch
	2.95	2.7	2.6
	3.05	3.15	2.36	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.22)	3.04 ↓ (3.19)	2.43 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Central
31.5%

Draw
30.4%

Carabobo
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

29.3%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

30%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Carabobo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Central than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Universidad Central - Carabobo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Romo R. (G) 2. Silva K. (C) 13. Peraza E. 6. Mottes G. 24. Cumana Y. 30. Gonzalez A. 5. Sole F. 16. De Sousa D. 11. Lugo W. 8. Zapata J. 9. Alegria J.	1. Silva M. (G) 21. Gonzalez A. (C) 6. Bahachille A. 32. Neira E. 8. Perez J. 15. Cova M. 5. Castillo E. 14. Berios J. 24. Ramirez E. 11. Machis D. 9. Castillo B.
Substitutes
42. Araujo J. 27. Carrillo D. 14. Diaz C. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 3. Pabon Delgao S. J. 21. Rodriguez V. 28. Ruiz M. 18. Sarli R. 1. Schiavone G. (G) 10. Sosa S. 4. Velasquez W.	20. Arzu E. 28. Bilbao J. 3. Fuentes J. 2. Guaramato M. 16. Lopez F. 19. Martinez L. 30. Mendoza S. 23. Meza D. 26. Nunez M. 17. Oliveros F. 10. Orozco Y. 12. Roa K. (G)
Coaches
Sasso D.	Farias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Castillo B. ⚽, Berios J. (A),
23', Lugo W. 🟨,
31', Perez J. 🟨,
31', Zapata J. 🟨,
38', Silva M. 🟨,
45+4', Gonzalez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lugo W. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
46', Alegria J. ↓, Araujo J. ↑,
50', Cumana Y. ↓, Carrillo D. ↑,
53', Castillo E. 🟨,
60', Castillo B. ↓, Orozco Y. ↑,
71', Machis D. ↓, Meza D. ↑,
71', Castillo E. ↓, Nunez M. ↑,
77', Gonzalez A. ↓, Sarli R. ↑,
80', Ruiz M. 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Zapata J. ⚽, De Sousa D. (A),
85', Sole F. 🟨,
85', De Sousa D. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
88', Rodriguez V. 🟨,
88', Silva K. 🟨,
88', Gonzalez A. 🟨,
89', Cova M. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
89', Berios J. ↓, Mendoza S. ↑,
90+2', Neira E. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 8th in the Promotion ~ Liga FUTVE (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Liga FUTVE (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Universidad Central won 2.

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Carabobo is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Universidad Central has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:17 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Universidad Central against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 5 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:3 goals (averaging 0.8:0.5 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Carabobo	11	5	3	3	12:8	4	18
8	Universidad Central	11	4	3	4	12:11	1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Carabobo - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.7%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
15.09.26	Universidad Central - Academia Anzoátegui	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Universidad Central	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	Universidad Central - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
03.09.26	Estudiantes de Mérida - Universidad Central	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Universidad Central - Rayo Zuliano	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWTTW
- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
15.09.26	Carabobo - Deportivo La Guaira	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Carabobo	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	Carabobo - Estudiantes de Mérida	1:0 ✺
03.09.26	Rayo Zuliano - Carabobo	4:3 ✺
30.08.26	Carabobo - Zamora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
12.04.26	Carabobo - Universidad Central	4:2
06.12.25	Carabobo - Universidad Central	0:2
30.11.25	Universidad Central - Carabobo	1:1
Copa Venezuela
08.10.25	Carabobo - Universidad Central	0:1 penalties
01.10.25	Universidad Central - Carabobo	0:0
Venezuelan Primera Division
23.08.25	Carabobo - Universidad Central	4:1
15.03.25	Universidad Central - Carabobo	1:1

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