Match Info

Liga FUTVE - Apertura - Quadrangular - Round 3

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)


	Universidad Central		Deportivo La Guaira

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.68	3.1	2.48
	2.9	3.1	2.43
	2.64	3.18	2.69	Watch
	2.88	2.9	2.5
	2.75	3.02	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.9)	3.06 ↑ (3.04)	2.5 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Central
33.2%

Draw
30%

Deportivo La Guaira
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

30.7%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

30.6%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Deportivo La Guaira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Central than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Guaira than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Universidad Central - Deportivo La Guaira Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Universidad Central will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Deportivo La Guaira will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Schiavone G. (G) 28. Ruiz M. 2. Silva K. (C) 3. Ramirez R. 27. Carrillo D. 9. Murillo Y. 6. Sole F. 30. Gonzalez A. 7. Cuesta J. 47. Granko A. 8. Zapata J.	1. Varela C. (G) 16. Martinez L. 24. Ortiz G. 3. Osio D. 20. Gutierrez J. 27. Correa J. 13. Ibarra R. (C) 7. Meza J. 6. Faya C. 36. Londono F. 9. Uribe A.
Substitutes
11. Bolivar J. 57. Cermeno C. 15. Davis R. 16. De Sousa D. 5. Martinez L. 14. Mendoza K. 1. Morales L. (G) 21. Ortiz C. 17. Rodriguez V. 18. Sarli R. 19. Simarra A. 10. Sosa S.	77. Arace R. 19. Ascanio G. 10. Castellanos J. 14. Da Silva C. 5. Gianoli M. 15. Gonzalez M. 33. Hernandez N. 18. Rivas Y. 21. Rodriguez A. 12. Sanchez J. (G) 22. Sulbaran M. 11. Vargas J.
Coaches
Sasso D.	Bidoglio H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Granko A. ↓, Sosa S. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Zapata J. ⚽, Murillo Y. (A),
61', Uribe A. ↓, Castellanos J. ↑,
61', Ibarra R. ↓, Rivas Y. ↑,
69', Varela C. 🟨,
70', Sosa S. ↓, Bolivar J. ↑,
70', Faya C. ↓, Sulbaran M. ↑,
74', Cuesta J. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
82', Meza J. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
82', Londono F. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
82', Zapata J. ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
83', Murillo Y. ↓, Simarra A. ↑,
90', Correa J. 🟨,
90+2', Osio D. 🟨,
90+2', Ramirez R. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Ortiz G. ⚽, Rivas Y. (A),
90+5', Hernandez N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Universidad Central won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Universidad Central won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Universidad Central won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	La Guaira	11	5	1	5	21:16	5	16
8	Universidad Central	11	4	3	4	12:11	1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo La Guaira - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 37.16%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
09.05.26	Universidad Central - Academia Puerto Cabello	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Universidad Central - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.26	Portuguesa Acarígua - Universidad Central	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Universidad Central - Rosario Central	0:3 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.04.26	Portuguesa Acarígua - Universidad Central	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWTLL
- Deportivo La Guaira
Venezuelan Primera Division
09.05.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Portuguesa Acarígua	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Bolívar	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira	4:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.04.26	Trujillanos - Deportivo La Guaira	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
21.03.26	Universidad Central - Deportivo La Guaira	0:1
Copa Venezuela
17.09.25	Deportivo La Guaira - Universidad Central	1:1
10.09.25	Universidad Central - Deportivo La Guaira	2:0
Venezuelan Primera Division
11.07.25	Universidad Central - Deportivo La Guaira	1:2
21.05.25	Deportivo La Guaira - Universidad Central	0:1
16.05.25	Universidad Central - Deportivo La Guaira	3:2
02.02.25	Deportivo La Guaira - Universidad Central	2:2

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