Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Vargas Carreno G. A. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Universidad Central		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.2	1.53	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.71
	5.9	4.15	1.52	Watch
	6.29	4.21	1.53
	5.33	4.02	1.62	Watch
	5.5	3.8	1.53	Watch
	5.94	4.19	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.69 ↑ (4.53)	4.02 ↑ (3.79)	1.57 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Central
16.6%

Draw
23.4%

Independiente del Valle
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

24.9%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

24.7%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente del Valle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Central than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Universidad Central - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: Independiente del Valle will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Schiavone G. (G) 2. Silva K. (C) 4. Velasquez W. 19. Simarra A. 27. Carrillo D. 30. Gonzalez A. 6. Sole F. 8. Zapata J. 47. Granko A. 7. Cuesta J. 11. Bolivar J.	1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 23. Viacava J. 19. Loor L. 16. Briones R. 6. Alcivar J. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 11. Perello M. 9. Gonzalez C. 17. Rodriguez A.
Substitutes
20. Berroteran Y. 24. Cumana Y. 15. Davis R. 16. De Sousa D. 14. Mendoza K. 1. Morales L. (G) 9. Murillo Y. 21. Ortiz C. 3. Ramirez R. 17. Rodriguez V. 28. Ruiz M. 10. Sosa S.	50. Angulo J. 12. Bores E. (G) 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 20. Gomez A. 55. Guagua D. 53. Lerma J. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 31. Pata E. 99. Reasco D. 33. Velasco A.
Coaches
Sasso D.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Granko A. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
50', Bolivar J. 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, Zapata J. ⚽,
65', Perello M. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Cuesta J. ⚽, Gonzalez A. (A),
70', Briones R. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
73', Loor L. 🟨,
80', Bolivar J. ↓, Murillo Y. ↑,
80', Cuesta J. ↓, Sosa S. ↑,
80', Viacava J. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
80', Rodriguez A. ↓, Reasco D. ↑,
87', Zapata J. ↓, Ramirez R. ↑,
87', Carrillo D. ↓, Cumana Y. ↑,
87', Angulo J. 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Universidad Central has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ind del Valle is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ind del Valle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ind del Valle is the team to beat.

There will not play in Universidad Central: Cermeno C. (Inactive) Hernandez Y. (Inactive) Martinez L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Arroyo J. P. (Inactive) Cazares (Injury) Mercado P. (Injury) Pombo J. (Shoulder Injury) Schunke R. (Inactive) Villar G. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Universidad Central won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.26	Portuguesa Acarígua - Universidad Central	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Universidad Central - Rosario Central	0:3 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.04.26	Portuguesa Acarígua - Universidad Central	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Universidad Central - Deportivo Táchira	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Central	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLTL
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Delfín - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Independiente del Valle - LDU Quito	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Central	3:1

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