Match Info

Date: 10 April 2022, Sunday


	Universidad San Martín		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.6	1.8
	4	3.3	1.78
	4.5	3.2	1.82	Watch
	4.1	3.3	1.8
	4.53	3.47	1.85
	4.4	3.2	1.78	Watch
	4.5	3.45	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↓ (5.07)	3.36 ↓ (3.47)	1.81 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad San Martín
21.2%

Draw
27.6%

FBC Melgar
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

27.2%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

27.4%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad San Martín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Universidad San Martín - FBC Melgar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 1.

Universidad San Martín has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Melgar is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Melgar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Melgar is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Melgar to win the game is with odds 1.8.

Last 24 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 6 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 25-38.

Including matches at home between the teams Universidad San Martín won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 1
01.04.22	Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martín	4:1 ✺
25.03.22	Universidad San Martín - Escuela Municipal Binacional	0:1 ✺
21.03.22	Universidad San Martín - Carlos A. Mannucci	1:3 ✺
12.03.22	Alianza Atlético - Universidad San Martín	3:1 ✺
07.03.22	Universidad San Martín - Atlético Grau	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FBC Melgar
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.22	Cuiabá - FBC Melgar	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
02.04.22	FBC Melgar - Carlos Stein	3:0 ✺
20.03.22	Cantolao - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.03.22	FBC Melgar - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
12.03.22	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
17.10.21	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	6:0
24.04.21	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	0:2
18.09.20	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	1:1
14.09.19	Universidad San Martín - FBC Melgar	1:1
30.03.19	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	3:1
25.11.18	Universidad San Martín - FBC Melgar	1:1
25.08.18	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	3:2

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