Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA) (Arequipa)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	FBC Melgar		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.10	4.00	Watch
	1.98	2.95	3.60
	2.08	3.10	3.50	Watch
	2.15	3.01	4.00
	2.08	3.03	3.94	Watch
	2.06	2.90	3.95
	2.09	2.96	3.90	Watch
	2.02	3.00	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.55)	3.01 ↓ (3.2)	3.82 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
45%

Draw
30.8%

Alianza Lima
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

29.6%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

30.5%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FBC Melgar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Alianza Lima (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 3. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 25. Minda K. 24. Tandazo W. 7. Bordacahar C. 11. Vidales J. 10. Quagliata N. 9. Cuesta B. (C)	1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 6. Garces R. (C) 3. Antoni M. 2. Diaz N. 7. Gaibor F. 5. Pavez E. 15. Castillo J. 25. Gentile G. 8. Castillo E. 20. Velez J.
Substitutes
12. Caceda C. (G) 16. Caceres J. 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 66. Orzan H. 26. Portillo M. 77. Zanelatto F. 45. Zegarra M.	29. Archimbaud J. 11. Cantero A. 31. Carbajal C. 4. Chavez G. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 77. Estrada J. 99. Girotti F. 22. Neira C. 34. Paolo Guerrero
Coaches
Rondelli M.	Guede P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Pavez E. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Bordacahar C. ⚽, Quagliata N. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Castillo J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Castillo J. ↓, Girotti F. ↑,
57', Tandazo W. 🟨,
66', Gentile G. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
69', Bordacahar C. ↓, Caceres J. ↑,
78', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
79', Velez J. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
79', Castillo E. ↓, Neira C. ↑,
82', Escobar J. 🟨,
83', Tandazo W. ↓, Portillo M. ↑,
83', Vidales J. ↓, Zegarra M. ↑,
90+2', Cabanillas N. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Melgar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Melgar is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Huaman M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Melgar: Orzan H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Alianza Lima: Ramos L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.2:1.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	14:10	4	16

Last Results with these Odds

FBC Melgar - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 37.15%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
15.08.26	Los Chankas - FBC Melgar	0:3 ✺
09.08.26	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	2:4 ✺
02.08.26	Moquegua - FBC Melgar	0:0 ✺
25.07.26	FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLTWW
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
15.08.26	Alianza Lima - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Sport Boys - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Alianza Lima - Alianza Atlético	3:1 ✺
26.07.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Lima	2:2 ✺
19.07.26	Alianza Lima - Sport Huancayo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
09.03.26	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	3:1
31.10.25	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	2:2
28.06.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	0:1
28.09.24	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	1:1
28.04.24	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	1:0
28.09.23	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	0:0
19.05.23	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	2:1

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