Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - CLAUSURA - ROUND 14

Date: 19 September 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Miguel Grau (Callao)


	Cantolao		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	6	3.6	1.55	Watch
	5.9	3.95	1.55	Watch
	5.95	3.88	1.58
	5.5	3.6	1.5
	5.85	4	1.57	Watch
	5.6	3.85	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.8 ↓ (7)	3.81 ↓ (4.4)	1.55 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cantolao
16%

Draw
24.3%

FBC Melgar
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.2%

21.1%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.8%

20.5%

67.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cantolao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FBC Melgar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cantolao than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Cantolao - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: FBC Melgar will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Limousin C. (G) 24. Delgado V. 6. Alzamora R. 2. Montoya J. 4. Moreira F. 19. Tamariz A. 8. Ramirez L. (C) 20. Ramirez D. 5. Guarderas R. 15. Calabrese B. 9. Espinoza Torres R.	12. Caceda C. (G) 3. Orzan H. 2. Galeano L. 17. Archimbaud J. 7. Bordacahar C. 28. Arias A. 24. Tandazo W. 90. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 11. D'Arrigo J. 10. Martinez T. 9. Cuesta B. (C)
Substitutes
32. Cangahuala R. 21. Jimenez J. 31. Lara J. 29. Lojas S. 50. Lozada J. (G) 14. Regalado I. 26. Vargas J. 27. Velasco S. 7. Vergara H.	22. Aguinaga A. 34. Ayqque J. 30. Beto S. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 14. Cavero S. 5. Deneumostier A. 1. Farro R. (G) 33. Lazo M. 18. Portugal B.
Coaches
Taffarel A.	Soso M.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 15 and 4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cantolao won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Melgar is indisputable favorite.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Cantolao won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 8-34.

Including matches at home between the teams Cantolao won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Cantolao
Peruvian Liga 1
15.09.23	Carlos A. Mannucci - Cantolao	1:2 ✺
09.09.23	Cantolao - Alianza Lima	0:2 ✺
26.08.23	Unión Comercio - Cantolao	2:1 ✺
15.08.23	Cantolao - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
12.08.23	Cienciano - Cantolao	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WLLWL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
15.09.23	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	4:0 ✺
09.09.23	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
27.08.23	FBC Melgar - Sport Huancayo	1:3 ✺
19.08.23	Cusco - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
15.08.23	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
29.04.23	FBC Melgar - Cantolao	5:0
15.08.22	FBC Melgar - Cantolao	3:1
20.03.22	Cantolao - FBC Melgar	0:1
03.10.21	Cantolao - FBC Melgar	0:2
27.03.21	FBC Melgar - Cantolao	3:0
12.09.20	Cantolao - FBC Melgar	0:2
24.11.19	FBC Melgar - Cantolao	4:2

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