Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 10

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Universidad de Concepción		Santiago Morning

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.95	3.3
	2.17	3.15	3.3
	2.11	3.32	3.23
	2.16	3.32	3.33	Watch
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.13	3.22	3.31	Watch
	2.17	3.15	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.99)	3.16 ↓ (3.23)	3.28 ↓ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Concepción
42.9%

Draw
29.1%

Santiago Morning
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.5%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

27%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Santiago Morning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad de Concepción than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad de Concepción, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Morning Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Campestrini C. (G) 3. Meza I. 4. Gonzalez O. (C) 15. Oyanedel Hernandez Y. A. 30. Retamal D. 8. Romo J. 10. Fuentealba J. 16. Ogaz B. 7. Molina S. 11. Gonzalez I. 28. Herrera I.	1. Arana A. (G) 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 7. Arancibia M. 15. Cortes F. 22. Rigazzi L. 4. Iturra M. 20. Ormeno E. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. (C) 10. Campillay K. 11. Escobar G. 17. Castro P.
Substitutes
21. Benitez F. 24. Canessa O. 6. Cordero R. 14. Medina C. 19. Olivares Alvarez R. I. 29. Sabando D. 13. Sanhueza J. (G)	30. Barrientos J. 12. Canete L. (G) 9. Cid W. 23. Delgado M. 25. Estay D. 8. Salazar S. 2. Santelices G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', Ormeno E. 🟥,
23', 1 - 0, Fuentealba J. ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, Gonzalez I. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Iturra M. ↓, Estay D. ↑,
46', Meza I. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
48', Romo J. 🟨,
54', 3 - 0, Fuentealba J. ⚽,
58', Oyanedel Hernandez Y. A. 🟨,
60', Escobar G. ↓, Cid W. ↑,
60', Cortes F. ↓, Delgado M. ↑,
64', Romo J. ↓, Cordero R. ↑,
69', Guajardo Barrera B. 🟨,
70', Fuentealba J. ↓, Benitez F. ↑,
70', Gonzalez I. ↓, Sabando D. ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Manriquez Hernandez F. ⚽,
79', Herrera I. ↓, Olivares Alvarez R. I. ↑,
79', 4 - 1, Molina S. ⚽,
86', Cordero R. 🟨,
89', Benitez F. 🟨,
90+4', 5 - 1, Olivares Alvarez R. I. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni de Concepción won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Santiago Morning may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Santiago Morning has had a series of home games.

Uni de Concepción might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Uni de Concepción won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni de Concepción won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 2.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Concepción
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Santa Cruz	0:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
02.05.25	Universidad de Concepción - Rangers de Talca	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Concepción	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	San Marcos de Arica - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 TTLLL
- Santiago Morning
Chilean Cup
09.05.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Magallanes	1:2 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
04.05.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Antofagasta	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Concepción	0:3 ✺
19.04.25	Santiago Morning - San Marcos de Arica	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Santiago Morning	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
09.09.24	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Morning	1:2
27.04.24	Santiago Morning - Universidad de Concepción	2:1
01.10.23	Santiago Morning - Universidad de Concepción	3:1
22.05.23	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Morning	2:0
22.10.22	Santiago Morning - Universidad de Concepción	0:2
23.05.22	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Morning	5:1
20.08.21	Santiago Morning - Universidad de Concepción	0:0

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