Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 7

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana (Santiago de Chile)


	Santiago Morning		San Marcos de Arica

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.95	2.05
	3.1	3.05	2.32
	2.99	3.12	2.33
	3.11	3.12	2.36	Watch
	3.4	2.9	2.15
	3.06	3.05	2.34
	3.1	3.05	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (3.08)	3.03 ↓ (3.3)	2.27 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santiago Morning
29.2%

Draw
30.3%

San Marcos de Arica
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

28%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

26.9%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santiago Morning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

San Marcos de Arica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Santiago Morning - San Marcos de Arica Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Santiago Morning (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santiago Morning (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Canete L. (G) 14. Vasquez K. (C) 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 22. Rigazzi L. 15. Cortes F. 6. Asprea T. 4. Iturra M. 20. Ormeno E. 10. Campillay K. 18. Taiva B. 17. Castro P.	1. Temperini N. (G) 3. Muller I. 5. Rivera J. 6. Ledesma F. 4. Caceres C. 36. Campos R. 8. Barrios A. (C) 10. Velazco F. 24. Pereira D. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C. 20. Abalos A.
Substitutes
1. Arana A. (G) 30. Barrientos J. 9. Cid W. 27. Coronado M. 29. Faundez D. 5. Gatica M. 8. Salazar S.	21. Camarda M. 19. Contreras A. 32. Gauna N. A. 14. Guerra C. 31. Maluenda L. 35. Plaza D. 22. Tapia B. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Pereira D. ↓, Camarda M. ↑,
62', Melivilu Fuentes C. 🟨,
66', Ormeno E. 🟨,
66', Taiva B. ↓, Cid W. ↑,
68', Castro P. ↓, Salazar S. ↑,
69', Camarda M. 🟨,
70', Velazco F. ↓, Gauna N. A. ↑,
78', Asprea T. ↓, Coronado M. ↑,
79', Abalos A. ↓, Guerra C. ↑,
79', Barrios A. ↓, Plaza D. ↑,
83', 0 - 1, Camarda M. ⚽,
87', Guerra C. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santiago Morning won 1.

Santiago Morning is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches San Marcos de Arica is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Santiago Morning have a series of guest games.

San Marcos de Arica will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Santiago Morning won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 15:21 (average 1.2:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Santiago Morning won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11:11 (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
13.04.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Santiago Morning	0:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Deportes Recoleta - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.03.25	Santiago Morning - Rangers de Talca	0:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
22.03.25	Universidad de Chile - Santiago Morning	3:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
17.03.25	Deportes Recoleta - Santiago Morning	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTLLL
- San Marcos de Arica
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
13.04.25	San Marcos de Arica - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Cobresal - San Marcos de Arica	3:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.03.25	Deportes Temuco - San Marcos de Arica	1:3 ✺
Chilean Cup
22.03.25	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes La Serena	1:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
16.03.25	San Marcos de Arica - Santiago Wanderers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
26.07.24	Santiago Morning - San Marcos de Arica	0:1
08.03.24	San Marcos de Arica - Santiago Morning	2:0
15.07.23	San Marcos de Arica - Santiago Morning	2:2
28.02.23	Santiago Morning - San Marcos de Arica	2:1
16.09.21	San Marcos de Arica - Santiago Morning	4:0
10.05.21	Santiago Morning - San Marcos de Arica	3:0
09.11.20	San Marcos de Arica - Santiago Morning	0:1

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