Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 9

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana (Santiago de Chile)


	Santiago Morning		Deportes Antofagasta

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.85	2.5
	2.22	3.25	3.1
	2.29	3.23	3.08
	2.41	3.15	3	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.5
	2.23	3.3	3.14
	2.22	3.25	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.6)	3.13 ↓ (3.3)	2.92 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santiago Morning
38.7%

Draw
29.6%

Deportes Antofagasta
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.9%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

26.7%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santiago Morning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Deportes Antofagasta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Antofagasta than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Antofagasta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santiago Morning - Deportes Antofagasta Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Santiago Morning (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Santiago Morning (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arana A. (G) 7. Arancibia M. 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 22. Rigazzi L. 15. Cortes F. 4. Iturra M. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. (C) 6. Asprea T. 20. Ormeno E. 10. Campillay K. 18. Taiva B.	12. Hurtado Perez F. (C) 3. Maluenda M. 6. Diaz C. 5. Astorga R. 33. Abuhadba Z. 7. Bravo C. 15. Baez F. 10. Souper A. 30. Jara I. 9. Lopez M. 11. Bandez J. D.
Substitutes
12. Canete L. (G) 17. Castro P. 9. Cid W. 5. Gatica M. 33. Lobos P. 8. Salazar S. 2. Santelices G.	24. Alvarez F. 23. Fredes M. 13. Gonzalez B. 21. Manzano F. 22. Marin C. (G) 17. Nieto B. 25. Siegler F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jara I. ↓, Gonzalez B. ↑,
47', Manzano F. 🟨,
48', Arancibia M. 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Bandez J. D. ⚽,
65', Hurtado Perez F. 🟨,
65', Rigazzi L. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Asprea T. ⚽,
77', Abuhadba Z. ↓, Siegler F. ↑,
78', Souper A. ↓, Alvarez F. ↑,
78', Maluenda M. ↓, Nieto B. ↑,
81', Diaz C. 🟨,
84', Arancibia M. ↓, Cid W. ↑,
90+2', Manzano F. 🟨,
90+5', Manriquez Hernandez F. 🟨,
90+7', Asprea T. ↓, Gatica M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 11).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Antofagasta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Santiago Morning won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Santiago Morning won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
27.04.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Concepción	0:3 ✺
19.04.25	Santiago Morning - San Marcos de Arica	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Santiago Morning	0:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Deportes Recoleta - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.03.25	Santiago Morning - Rangers de Talca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWTL
- Deportes Antofagasta
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
27.04.25	Deportes Antofagasta - San Marcos de Arica	2:3 ✺
20.04.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Unión San Felipe	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Antofagasta	1:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Cobreloa	0:3 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
28.03.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Antofagasta	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
25.08.24	Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Morning	0:0
13.04.24	Santiago Morning - Deportes Antofagasta	0:1
23.07.23	Santiago Morning - Deportes Antofagasta	1:2
05.03.23	Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Morning	1:0

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