Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 10 May 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)

Referee: Ureta D. (Per)


	Unión Comercio		ADT Tarma

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3	3.1	2.1
	3.35	3.35	2.15	Watch
	3.26	3.4	2.21
	3.26	3.26	2.22
	3.2	3.3	2.05
	3.24	3.28	2.14	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.63)	3.26 ↑ (3.24)	2.15 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
28.5%

Draw
28.4%

ADT Tarma
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

28.1%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

28.8%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Unión Comercio's form might have worsened.

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting ADT Tarma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Comercio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for ADT Tarma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	28.6%	71.4%

Unión Comercio - ADT Tarma Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. ADT will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barrios I. (G) 15. Jimenez O. 3. Paredes T. 20. Ramirez C. 17. Vargas D. 31. Serra P. 5. Sanchez K. 7. Carranza M. 24. Javier Navea 10. Hernan Perez 13. Angulo Grueso B. A.	21. Diaz P. (G) 23. Narvaez J. 16. Choi G. 24. Rambal A. 54. Gamero Y. 12. Rojas J. 6. Perez L. 3. Inga C. 10. Cedron V. 89. Posito J. 20. Beto S.
Substitutes
23. Alvarez J. 18. Carhualllanqui J. 12. Diaz W. (G) 14. Regalado I. 2. Salas J. 8. Sandoval V. 26. Tandazo J. 19. Uribe C. 16. Villamarin R.	7. Aubert E. 18. Dominguez J. 29. Falconi J. 14. Gonzales J. 1. Hermoza E. (G) 8. Palomino J. 11. Quinonez A. 17. Vargas C. 4. Vega R.
Coaches
Garcia M.	Desio C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Perez L. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Hernan Perez ⚽, Carranza M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Inga C. ↓, Gonzales J. ↑,
46', Angulo Grueso B. A. ↓, Regalado I. ↑,
50', Posito J. 🟨,
53', Javier Navea ↓, Sandoval V. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Posito J. ⚽,
61', Vargas D. 🟨,
61', Perez L. ↓, Aubert E. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Rojas J. ⚽, Gamero Y. (A),
73', Carranza M. ↓, Tandazo J. ↑,
78', Serra P. ↓, Villamarin R. ↑,
78', Vargas D. ↓, Uribe C. ↑,
78', Rojas J. ↓, Quinonez A. ↑,
87', Cedron V. 🟨,
89', 2 - 2, Ramirez C. (Pen),
90+2', Rambal A. 🟨,
90+8', Beto S. ↓, Palomino J. ↑,
90+8', Cedron V. ↓, Vargas C. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 and 5).

Unión Comercio is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

ADT is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
04.05.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	3:1 ✺
27.04.24	Sport Boys - Unión Comercio	0:0 ✺
19.04.24	Unión Comercio - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
13.04.24	Alianza Atlético - Unión Comercio	2:0 ✺
06.04.24	Unión Comercio - Universidad César Vallejo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTLLT
- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.24	ADT Tarma - Universitario de Deportes	2:0 ✺
28.04.24	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	1:2 ✺
20.04.24	ADT Tarma - Universidad César Vallejo	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Cusco - ADT Tarma	3:2 ✺
07.04.24	ADT Tarma - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
08.10.23	ADT Tarma - Unión Comercio	3:0
28.05.23	Unión Comercio - ADT Tarma	4:3

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