Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - CLAUSURA - ROUND 1

Date: 25 June 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)


	Unión Comercio		Deportivo Municipal

	1	X	2
	1.22	6.5	13	Watch
	1.23	5.5	9.25
	1.24	6	10
	1.25	5.78	10.29
	1.22	5	12
	1.26	5.65	11.5	Watch
	1.24	5.6	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (2.19)	5.72 ↑ (3.35)	11.01 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
75.3%

Draw
16.3%

Deportivo Municipal
8.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

27.7%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

26.8%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+32.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Comercio's performance.

Deportivo Municipal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Municipal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-31.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión Comercio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Municipal than the current prediction. (+20.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Municipal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Unión Comercio - Deportivo Municipal Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Unión Comercio will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Municipal will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Unión Comercio: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diaz W. (G) 17. Vargas D. 16. Uculmana F. 26. Reategui A. 29. Alvarez J. 8. Tello Y. 22. Vargas C. 11. Barreto O. 10. Neira C. 7. Carranza M. 9. de Jesus M.	1. Rivadeneyra S. (G) 26. Toledo J. 3. Rugel L. 36. Yanez A. 30. Ortega Barquero F. A. 10. Perez Garcia M. 18. Flores C. 16. Galvez del Cuadro S. 19. Correa Vilela E. I. 14. Nunes J. 32. Erustes P.
Substitutes
19. Arroe J. 30. Guerrero G. 14. Jimenez J. 15. Jimenez O. 31. Lopez J. 4. Perez V. 5. Sanchez K. 21. Sandi M. (G) 13. Trauco J.	23. Cabrera E. 13. Moyano D. 34. Panduro M. 27. Rojas F. 21. Romero J. 33. Solis C. (G)
Coaches
Farias D.	Castillo R.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Unión Comercio is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 16-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
10.06.23	Unión Comercio - Atlético Grau	2:2 ✺
03.06.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Unión Comercio	2:2 ✺
28.05.23	Unión Comercio - ADT Tarma	4:3 ✺
22.05.23	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Unión Comercio	5:0 ✺
13.05.23	Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TTWLL
- Deportivo Municipal
Peruvian Liga 1
10.06.23	Cantolao - Deportivo Municipal	0:1 ✺
03.06.23	Deportivo Municipal - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
26.05.23	Cienciano - Deportivo Municipal	1:0 ✺
21.05.23	Deportivo Municipal - Sport Huancayo	1:2 ✺
15.05.23	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Municipal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
26.03.23	Deportivo Municipal - Unión Comercio	2:0
06.10.19	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Municipal	2:1
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
10.08.19	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Municipal	1:2
Peruvian Liga 1
21.04.19	Deportivo Municipal - Unión Comercio	1:0
30.09.18	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Municipal	3:1
09.06.18	Deportivo Municipal - Unión Comercio	3:0
10.04.18	Deportivo Municipal - Unión Comercio	2:1

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