Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 27 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)

Referee: Cartagena J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
World	Fanatiz


	Unión Comercio		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	15	7.5	1.09	Watch
	14.5	8.5	1.11
	23	9	1.1	Watch
	15.5	9.27	1.1
	18.5	8.49	1.12	Watch
	17	8.5	1.08
	21	10.3	1.11	Watch
	23	9	1.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	18.44 ↑ (7.76)	8.82 ↑ (4.73)	1.1 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
5%

Draw
10.5%

Sporting Cristal
84.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12%

19.7%

68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.7%

19.3%

69.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Unión Comercio's form might have worsened.

Sporting Cristal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting Cristal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Comercio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting Cristal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	9. Cauteruccio M.
	55. Cazonatti G.
	31. Enriquez D. (G)
	47. Gonzales C.
	7. Gonzalez S.
	24. Pacheco F.
	28. Pasquini N.
	29. Posito Olazabal A. J.
	6. Pretell Panta J. E.
	21. Romero F.
	8. Sosa L.
Substitutes
	30. Alarcon J.
	11. Avila I.
	23. Castro M.
	4. Chavez G.
	13. Duarte A. (G)
	39. Iberico L.
	15. Lora J.
	25. Tavara M.
	26. Wisdom I.
Coaches
	. Farre G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 7)
3', 0 - 1, Cauteruccio M. ⚽, Gonzalez S. (A),
7', 0 - 2, Gonzales C. ⚽,
10', 0 - 3, Cauteruccio M. ⚽, Gonzalez S. (A),
18', 0 - 4, Pacheco F. ⚽, Gonzalez S. (A),
22', 0 - 5, Cauteruccio M. ⚽, Gonzalez S. (A),
31', Javier Navea ↓, Ferreyra K. ↑,
37', 0 - 6, Gonzales C. ⚽, Sosa L. (A),
43', 0 - 7, Cauteruccio M. ⚽, Pacheco F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 5)
46', Torres J. ↓, Ugarelli G. ↑,
46', Cauteruccio M. ↓, Avila I. ↑,
46', Gonzales C. ↓, Iberico L. ↑,
46', Pacheco F. ↓, Castro M. ↑,
46', Cazonatti G. ↓, Alarcon J. ↑,
46', Vinces A. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
47', 0 - 8, Iberico L. ⚽,
53', 0 - 9, Iberico L. ⚽, Gonzalez S. (A),
64', Gonzalez S. ↓, Wisdom I. ↑,
67', 0 - 10, Alarcon J. ⚽, Avila I. (A),
70', 0 - 11, Avila I. ⚽,
85', 0 - 12, Alarcon J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 and 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 1.

Unión Comercio is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sporting Cristal is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Sporting Cristal is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Unión Comercio: Barrios I. (Injury)

There will not play in Sporting Cristal: Cordova M. (Hip Injury) Diaz L. (Injury) Lutiger R. (Ankle Injury) Solis R. (Knee Injury) Yotun Y. (Knee Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 21:41 (average 1.1:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:18 (average 1.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
23.10.24	ADT Tarma - Unión Comercio	2:0 ✺
17.10.24	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	3:2 ✺
27.09.24	Unión Comercio - Sport Boys	0:2 ✺
22.09.24	Universitario de Deportes - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
19.09.24	Unión Comercio - Alianza Atlético	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLL
- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
23.10.24	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	2:1 ✺
19.10.24	Alianza Atlético - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	Sporting Cristal - Universidad César Vallejo	4:1 ✺
22.09.24	Cusco - Sporting Cristal	1:1 ✺
17.09.24	Sporting Cristal - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
18.05.24	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	5:1
02.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	3:0
13.05.23	Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal	1:6
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
04.07.21	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	2:0
Peruvian Liga 1
25.08.19	Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal	2:1
09.03.19	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	1:0
12.09.18	Unión Comercio - Sporting Cristal	2:1

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