Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 20

Date: 13 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Ortiz J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Unión Magdalena		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.45	3.55	1.98	Watch
	3.47	3.59	2.02
	2.74	2.99	2.60	Watch
	3.55	3.35	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.74)	3.38 ↑ (2.99)	2.12 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
27.7%

Draw
27.8%

Fortaleza CEIF
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

30.9%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

30.8%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Unión Magdalena's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza CEIF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fortaleza CEIF's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Magdalena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fortaleza CEIF, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	9.1%	63.6%

Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Magdalena (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Fortaleza (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Heredia D. (G) 4. Murillo D. 28. Mercado J. 18. Molina F. 26. Tello J. 16. Congo J. 8. Colpa Bolano R. R. 20. Giraldo J. 10. Sarmiento J. (C) 9. Iguaran C. 11. Martinez M.	12. Santander C. (G) 4. Marulanda J. 2. Lasso M. 23. Escorcia L. 20. Valencia S. 16. Florez K. 13. Pajaro R. (C) 17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 10. Velasquez J. 8. Ricaurte A. 19. Aristizabal E.
Substitutes
7. Aleman J. 17. Arrieta G. 77. Ballesteros M. 19. Diaz K. 25. Perez J. 14. Pinto J. 6. Sagrera W. 23. Surmay O. 12. Tasso M. (G)	33. Arroyo A. 15. Cuero S. 1. Garcia Jordan (G) 27. Mosquera C. 22. Palacios S. 21. Ramiirez S. 24. Salas J. 30. Solis J. 31. Vivas S.
Coaches
Silva C.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Iguaran C. ⚽, Martinez M. (A),
42', Colpa Bolano R. R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Balanta Carabali K. A. ↓, Ramiirez S. ↑,
55', Valencia S. 🟨,
58', 2 - 0, Martinez M. ⚽, Sarmiento J. (A),
64', Valencia S. ↓, Cuero S. ↑,
64', Velasquez J. ↓, Palacios S. ↑,
65', Ricaurte A. ↓, Solis J. ↑,
66', Marulanda J. 🟨,
68', Giraldo J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
68', Marulanda J. ↓, Mosquera C. ↑,
82', Sarmiento J. ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
82', Martinez M. ↓, Narvaez L. ↑,
82', Iguaran C. ↓, Aleman J. ↑,
87', Mercado J. ↓, Surmay O. ↑,
90+1', Narvaez L. 🟨,

Preview

Fortaleza is Qualified for Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 3.

Unión Magdalena has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fortaleza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Unión Magdalena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza CEIF - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.48%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
09.11.25	América de Cali - Unión Magdalena	3:0 ✺
30.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
17.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Envigado	3:1 ✺
12.10.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLWL
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
08.11.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Junior Barranquilla	1:1 ✺
29.10.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	0:1 ✺
24.10.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo Pasto	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	3:1 ✺
13.10.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
24.05.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	0:1
Colombian Copa
30.03.23	Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF	4:2
15.03.23	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	2:1
Colombian Primera B
28.11.21	Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0
13.11.21	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	0:0
26.07.21	Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF	3:1
03.03.21	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	1:1

Upcoming Matches