Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 18

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá)

Referee: Delgado L. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Deportivo La Equidad		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.7	1.62	Watch
	5.4	3.7	1.62	Watch
	3.29	3.12	2.18	Watch
	5.51	3.71	1.62	Watch
	4.1	3.25	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.76 ↑ (3.29)	3.5 ↑ (3.12)	1.78 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo La Equidad
19.9%

Draw
27.1%

Fortaleza CEIF
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

29.6%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

27.9%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo La Equidad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo La Equidad's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza CEIF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fortaleza CEIF's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo La Equidad, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fortaleza CEIF, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	4.8%	90.5%

Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Fortaleza (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fortaleza CEIF will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fortaleza CEIF will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Gomez Palacio Y. A. (G) 31. Julio R. 4. Rodas M. (C) 2. Vivas C. 26. Gomez Mosquera Y. A. 13. Abonia Y. 15. Quinones D. 29. Santamaria M. 11. Gonzalez F. 8. Monaco M. 18. Bolivar J.	1. Garcia Jordan (G) 4. Marulanda J. 6. Diaz Y. 23. Escorcia L. 15. Cuero S. 16. Florez K. 13. Pajaro R. (C) 21. Ramiirez S. 33. Arroyo A. 10. Velasquez J. 19. Aristizabal E.
Substitutes
20. Angel Amaya Pena M. 37. Asprilla J. 24. Banguero E. 23. Castilla J. 14. Colorado J. 5. Masllorens J. 10. Mayo S. 7. Micolta Piedahita J. 12. Palacio S. (G)	11. Amaya A. 5. Cabezas E. 2. Lasso M. 27. Mosquera C. 22. Palacios S. 8. Ricaurte A. 24. Salas J. 12. Santander C. (G) 31. Vivas S.
Coaches
Gomez D.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Marulanda J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Marulanda J. ↓, Mosquera C. ↑,
46', Velasquez J. ↓, Ricaurte A. ↑,
54', Aristizabal E. 🟨,
58', Quinones D. 🟨,
63', 0 - 1, Aristizabal E. (Pen),
67', Bolivar J. ↓, Asprilla J. ↑,
68', Santamaria M. ↓, Mayo S. ↑,
74', Monaco M. ↓, Micolta Piedahita J. ↑,
74', Aristizabal E. ↓, Salas J. ↑,
81', Julio R. ↓, Banguero E. ↑,
82', Gonzalez F. ↓, Castilla J. ↑,
83', Arroyo A. ↓, Amaya A. ↑,
86', Diaz Y. 🟨,
90+1', Gomez Mosquera Y. A. 🟨,
90+3', Ricaurte A. ↓, Lasso M. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Equidad won 0.

La Equidad is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fortaleza is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fortaleza could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Fortaleza will win today's game, with odds of 1.97.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, La Equidad won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:10. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, La Equidad won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
24.10.25	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo La Equidad	2:0 ✺
20.10.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	América de Cali - Deportivo La Equidad	3:2 ✺
06.10.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Once Caldas	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo La Equidad	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
24.10.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo Pasto	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	3:1 ✺
13.10.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Llaneros SA - Fortaleza CEIF	0:0 ✺
26.09.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
07.09.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo La Equidad	1:0
Colombian Copa
15.06.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	0:2
Colombian Primera A
10.05.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo La Equidad	4:0
22.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1
05.11.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1
18.04.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	0:0

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